All trends
The referendum, local elections and the dependency of the public sector
The authorities continue to develop their repressive agenda as the outlook of government and private business continues to diverge
Security forces aim for complete demotivation of protests
Lukashenka resists the development of political parties, while legislators delegate the choice of victims and the nature of repressive measures to law enforcement officers’ discretion
The legalisation of political repression, criminal cases against political exiles and ex-siloviki
Riot gear and repression on the streets of the capital while the authorities incite controversy over protest symbols
With the weakening of state institutions and public sector cuts, the apparatus of the state is preoccupied with the campaign against dissent
The regime is preparing for economic difficulties and requires the army to “fight from within”
Discussion about the transfer of power and political parties resumes, but repressions do not abate
Large-scale indiscriminate repression as public sector employment expands thanks to budgetary injections
Purges, repression, carte blanche for the security forces, and a changing social contract
Lukashenka announces the outlines of constitutional reform proposals as the authorities attack the private sector
Security forces intensify their anti-corruption campaign and constitutional reform comes to nothing
Authorities ramp up threats to society and the nomenklatura in the run-up to All Belarusian People’s Assembly
The quality of state administration and public services deteriorates as the authorities continue to withdraw funds from the population
Lukashenka is hoping for a forceful resolution of the political crisis
Lukashenka is hoping to cement the vertical power structure at the All-Belarusian Assembly; security forces carry out purges in residential areas in large cities targeting protesters
2020: The state lost touch with society and resumed financial intervention in the public sector
The Belarusian authorities aim to increase taxation as Lukashenka takes transfer of power off the table
The authorities restrict assistance to the private sector and tighten foreign travel rules for Belarusians
While Covid-19 brings the Belarusian healthcare system to the verge of collapse, the authorities increase repression against clerics to restrain religious organisations
Loyalty to Lukashenka continues to erode as he doubles down on the use of force to curtail protests
The authorities stake their future on the security forces, not on dialogue
The authorities pin their hopes on constitutional reforms as public confidence in public institutions continues to crumble due to the actions of security forces
The authorities continue to try to redefine the news agenda and augment repression with “political propaganda”
Belarus’ strongman rotates senior security officials and postpones the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly
The authorities have postponed constitutional reforms and continue to reshuffle the public sector
The authorities are propelling constitutional reforms and resume state subsidies to the public sector
Loyalty to Lukashenka becomes indispensable to the public sector employees amid promised state investments
Constitutional reform planned amid a crackdown on dissent while the economy backslides into depression
Despite purges in the media sector and unceasing pressure on the business community in Belarus, the exodus of public sector employees continues
The Belarusian authorities continue to bolster the edifice of power, including through propping up employment in the public sector
Lukashenka scrambles to secure the loyalty of public officials whilst security forces step up pressure on protest groups
Popular support for public institutions continues to reduce whilst Lukashenka retains control over the edifice of power
The authorities promote constitutional reform amid purges in the edifice of power
The Belarusian authorities focused on demotivating the strike movement, whilst loyalty of the edifice of power, security and government officials remained under threat
Senior administration officials remain loyal to Lukashenka; however, unity is fraying, and cracks are appearing in the edifice of power
The ruling elite
The referendum, local elections and the dependency of the public sector 
April 26 – May 2
The authorities continue to develop their repressive agenda as the outlook of government and private business continues to diverge
April 19 – April 25
Security forces aim for complete demotivation of protests
April 12 – April 18
Lukashenka resists the development of political parties, while legislators delegate the choice of victims and the nature of repressive measures to law enforcement officers’ discretion
April 5 – April 11
The legalisation of political repression, criminal cases against political exiles and ex-siloviki
March 29 – April 4
Riot gear and repression on the streets of the capital while the authorities incite controversy over protest symbols
March 22 – March 28
With the weakening of state institutions and public sector cuts, the apparatus of the state is preoccupied with the campaign against dissent
March 15 – March 21
The regime is preparing for economic difficulties and requires the army to “fight from within”
March 8 – March 14
Discussion about the transfer of power and political parties resumes, but repressions do not abate
March 1 – March 7
Large-scale indiscriminate repression as public sector employment expands thanks to budgetary injections
February 22 – February 28
Purges, repression, carte blanche for the security forces, and a changing social contract
February 15 – February 21
Lukashenka announces the outlines of constitutional reform proposals as the authorities attack the private sector
February 8 – February 14
Security forces intensify their anti-corruption campaign and constitutional reform comes to nothing
February 1 – February 7
Authorities ramp up threats to society and the nomenklatura in the run-up to All Belarusian People’s Assembly
January 25 – January 31
The quality of state administration and public services deteriorates as the authorities continue to withdraw funds from the population
January 18 – January 24
Lukashenka is hoping for a forceful resolution of the political crisis
January 11 – January 17
Lukashenka is hoping to cement the vertical power structure at the All-Belarusian Assembly; security forces carry out purges in residential areas in large cities targeting protesters
January 4 – January 10
2020: The state lost touch with society and resumed financial intervention in the public sector
January 4 – January 10
The Belarusian authorities aim to increase taxation as Lukashenka takes transfer of power off the table
December 14 – December 20
The authorities restrict assistance to the private sector and tighten foreign travel rules for Belarusians
December 7 – December 13
While Covid-19 brings the Belarusian healthcare system to the verge of collapse, the authorities increase repression against clerics to restrain religious organisations
November 30 – December 6
Loyalty to Lukashenka continues to erode as he doubles down on the use of force to curtail protests
November 23 – November 29
The authorities stake their future on the security forces, not on dialogue
November 16 – November 22
The authorities pin their hopes on constitutional reforms as public confidence in public institutions continues to crumble due to the actions of security forces
November 9 – November 15
The authorities continue to try to redefine the news agenda and augment repression with “political propaganda” 
November 2 – November 8
Belarus’ strongman rotates senior security officials and postpones the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly
October 26 – November 1
The authorities have postponed constitutional reforms and continue to reshuffle the public sector
October 19 – October 25
The authorities are propelling constitutional reforms and resume state subsidies to the public sector
October 12 – October 18
Loyalty to Lukashenka becomes indispensable to the public sector employees amid promised state investments
October 5 – October 11
Constitutional reform planned amid a crackdown on dissent while the economy backslides into depression
September 28 – October 4
Despite purges in the media sector and unceasing pressure on the business community in Belarus, the exodus of public sector employees continues
September 21 – September 27
The Belarusian authorities continue to bolster the edifice of power, including through propping up employment in the public sector
September 14 – September 20
Lukashenka scrambles to secure the loyalty of public officials whilst security forces step up pressure on protest groups
September 7 – September 13
Popular support for public institutions continues to reduce whilst Lukashenka retains control over the edifice of power
August 31 – September 6
The authorities promote constitutional reform amid purges in the edifice of power
August 24 – August 30
The Belarusian authorities focused on demotivating the strike movement, whilst loyalty of the edifice of power, security and government officials remained under threat
August 17 – August 23
Senior administration officials remain loyal to Lukashenka; however, unity is fraying, and cracks are appearing in the edifice of power
August 10 – August 16