All trends

The ruling elite

The referendum proceeds as loyalists are indoctrinated with the Kremlin agenda

February 21 – February 27

The referendum picks up pace. State media adjusts its approach, and government-sponsored NGOs (GoNGOs) take centre stage

February 14 – February 20

The regime does not feel the need to expand its support base; security forces continue to repress activism in society

February 7 – February 13

Public sector purges continue. Loyalists will ensure a required referendum turnout

January 31 – February 6

Lukashenka gradually regains his status as security forces continue large-scale purges before the referendum

January 17 – January 23

The regime musters loyalists ahead of the referendum as the state devolves some social guarantees to businesses

January 10 – January 16

State apparatus consolidates on the eve of the referendum as security forces expand repressions

December 20 – December 26

As the regime represses private businesses, the security forces enforce political inertia in society

December 13 – December 19

Security forces continue purges as the regime aims to depoliticize society before the referendum

December 6 – December 12

Purges in anticipation of the referendum and questionable solutions to address the budget deficit

November 29 – December 5

Belarusian government resumes support for public sector, Lukashenka has doubts about referendum

November 22 – November 28

Lukashenka defines the agenda for the referendum as purges of opponents and the media continue

November 15 – November 21

The regime continues to flout the law as suppression of civil society and media activities continues

November 8 – November 14

The regime refuses to buy the loyalty of the population; the inadvertence of constitutional innovations

November 1 – November 7

State expropriation of funds from business and the population continues; the price of dissent remains high

October 25 – October 31

The Union State: Towards Crisis A

October 18 – October 24

The security forces suppress media audiences as covid-19 disinformation fosters distrust

October 11 – October 17

The regime buys the loyalty of the state apparatus as the momentum for reform decreases

October 4 – October 10

Constitutional amendments provide guarantees for Lukashenka as the population and businesses are lined up to address budget shortfalls

September 27 – October 3

Taxing the population and business in anticipation of sanctions as spy mania returns

September 20 – September 26

Unity coerced by repression as the authorities repeat the COVID-19 mistakes of spring 2020

September 13 – September 19

Tensions between public administration and the security forces rise as the search for extra-budgetary finances intensifies

September 6 – September 12

Repression of the environmental sector and public sector protectionism

August 30 – September 5

Lukashenka politicises education as state-owned companies reduce their commitment to employment support

August 23 – August 29

A return to purchasing the loyalty of state employees and a deal with loyal businesses to address sanctions losses

August 16 – August 22

Lukashenka is turning back the clock to before 2020 as security forces dismantle infrastructure supporting vulnerable groups

August 9 – August 15

Lukashenka uses external threats to consolidate power; security forces repress 2020 demonstrators

August 2 – August 8

Purges in the third sector, including in the media, continue before the upcoming constitutional referendum; security forces aim to compel the private business to loyalty

July 26 – August 1

Repression continues, the state plans to increase seizures from the population and business

July 19 – July 25

The regime is dismantling the institutions of civil society as it prepares for a constitutional referendum

July 12 – July 18

Security forces smash independent media infrastructure as large-scale repression continues in Minsk and the regions

July 5 – July 11

The authorities continue with large-scale purges of Civil Society and prepare to replace the High Technology Park

June 28 – July 4

Lukashenka escalates his rhetoric as the security forces continue to seize businesses

June 21 – June 27

The authorities increase cultural censorship as conditions for small business deteriorate

June 14 – June 20

The government cuts funding for public servants and signals the possibility of lessening repression

June 7 – June 13

Security forces continue purges in preparation for a future constitutional referendum while the government continues to prop up the public sector

May 31 – June 6

The regime pursues collective governance plans as constant repression depletes resources

May 24 – May 30