All trends

The ruling elite

Lukashenka exerts direct control as imbalances in the state apparatus grow

June 13 – June 19

Unbalanced economic policy, purging disloyal investors and entrepreneurs

June 6 – June 12

Restrictions on competition in the medical sphere as authorities impose price controls

May 30 – June 5

The state expands surcharges to taxi drivers and traders as state budgets are redistributed to the security forces

May 23 – May 29

The state monopolises medical services; Beltelecom aims for total video surveillance

May 16 – May 22

The ruling class engages in liberal rhetoric while restructuring the private medical sector to favour regime allies

May 9 – May 15

Restrictions on medical businesses, tobacco, and investment; redistribution in favour of state business and loyalist entrepreneurs

May 2 – May 8

Repressions in the banking and public sectors; seizures in anticipation of sanctions effects

April 25 – May 1

Escalation of repression but forced concessions for business

April 18 – April 24

The siloviki strengthen their position in the leadership, the influence of the National Bank on economic policy falters

April 11 – April 17

The authorities are raising tax rates on the population and business as the security forces maintain repression

April 4 – April 10

Competition for resources intensifies amongst the ruling class as the state increases confiscations from dissidents

March 28 – April 3

The regime placates loyalists by avoiding direct participation in aggression; direct control of the economy intensifies

March 21 – March 27

The struggle for the minds of loyalists as contradictory measures to support the economy are announced

March 14 – March 20

The government reassures the population as security forces repress dissidents

March 7 – March 13

The regime widens divisions in society as state propaganda aligns with the Kremlin war agenda

February 28 – March 6

The referendum proceeds as loyalists are indoctrinated with the Kremlin agenda

February 21 – February 27

The referendum picks up pace. State media adjusts its approach, and government-sponsored NGOs (GoNGOs) take centre stage

February 14 – February 20

The regime does not feel the need to expand its support base; security forces continue to repress activism in society

February 7 – February 13

Public sector purges continue. Loyalists will ensure a required referendum turnout

January 31 – February 6

Lukashenka gradually regains his status as security forces continue large-scale purges before the referendum

January 17 – January 23

The regime musters loyalists ahead of the referendum as the state devolves some social guarantees to businesses

January 10 – January 16

State apparatus consolidates on the eve of the referendum as security forces expand repressions

December 20 – December 26

As the regime represses private businesses, the security forces enforce political inertia in society

December 13 – December 19

Security forces continue purges as the regime aims to depoliticize society before the referendum

December 6 – December 12

Purges in anticipation of the referendum and questionable solutions to address the budget deficit

November 29 – December 5

Belarusian government resumes support for public sector, Lukashenka has doubts about referendum

November 22 – November 28

Lukashenka defines the agenda for the referendum as purges of opponents and the media continue

November 15 – November 21

The regime continues to flout the law as suppression of civil society and media activities continues

November 8 – November 14

The regime refuses to buy the loyalty of the population; the inadvertence of constitutional innovations

November 1 – November 7

State expropriation of funds from business and the population continues; the price of dissent remains high

October 25 – October 31

The Union State: Towards Crisis A

October 18 – October 24

The security forces suppress media audiences as covid-19 disinformation fosters distrust

October 11 – October 17

The regime buys the loyalty of the state apparatus as the momentum for reform decreases

October 4 – October 10

Constitutional amendments provide guarantees for Lukashenka as the population and businesses are lined up to address budget shortfalls

September 27 – October 3

Taxing the population and business in anticipation of sanctions as spy mania returns

September 20 – September 26

Unity coerced by repression as the authorities repeat the COVID-19 mistakes of spring 2020

September 13 – September 19