December 11 – December 17, 2023
The ruling elite

Elections 2024: Reassessing the Legitimacy of the Government

The situation has not changed
Elections 2024: Reassessing the Legitimacy of the Government

Ideologues have initiated an extensive pre-election campaign targeting state employees and public sector workers. The ruling class is mobilizing the electorate for a unified voting day to restore the legitimacy of state institutions. Authorities aim to exclude opponents from observing the elections and nomination as candidates for deputies, while also promoting increased absenteeism.

Propagandists are striving to cultivate a positive attitude toward the elections among supporters of the regime, particularly state employees and those in the state sector of the economy. The ruling class views the upcoming parliamentary and local council elections, along with the formation of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, as the primary political events in the coming months, as outlined in the 2023 ideological methodology.

Ideologues are conducting large-scale meetings within working groups of state-owned enterprises and organizations to announce the key themes supporting the regime.

Simultaneously, the ruling class is attempting to secure loyalty from civil servants and the public sector by offering increased salaries, leading to a growth in the total amount of cash in circulation and a 6.1% rise in real incomes of the population from January to October.

Election organizers anticipate a mass mobilization of regime sympathizers, strategically sidelining the protesting audience. The ruling class aims to regain complete control over the electoral process, especially on the eve of the presidential elections, and create a perception of widespread support for Lukashenka’s regime in society.

According to independent sociological research, the ruling class has already established a numerical advantage of its supporters in society. The government intends to solidify its political power monopoly and obtain legal consent from the people.

Concurrently, authorities and propagandists are actively working to demotivate regime opponents, seeking to depoliticize those who dissent and foster absenteeist sentiments among them. Notably, observers of the 2020 presidential elections were targeted nationwide, contributing to Belarus ranking among the top three countries with the highest number of imprisoned journalists.

Therefore, the ruling class relies on the mass mobilization of budget employees and public sector workers for early voting.

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.

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