All trends
The ruling class engages in liberal rhetoric while restructuring the private medical sector to favour regime allies
Restrictions on medical businesses, tobacco, and investment; redistribution in favour of state business and loyalist entrepreneurs
Repressions in the banking and public sectors; seizures in anticipation of sanctions effects
Escalation of repression but forced concessions for business
The siloviki strengthen their position in the leadership, the influence of the National Bank on economic policy falters
The authorities are raising tax rates on the population and business as the security forces maintain repression
Competition for resources intensifies amongst the ruling class as the state increases confiscations from dissidents
The regime placates loyalists by avoiding direct participation in aggression; direct control of the economy intensifies
The struggle for the minds of loyalists as contradictory measures to support the economy are announced
The government reassures the population as security forces repress dissidents
The regime widens divisions in society as state propaganda aligns with the Kremlin war agenda
The referendum proceeds as loyalists are indoctrinated with the Kremlin agenda
The referendum picks up pace. State media adjusts its approach, and government-sponsored NGOs (GoNGOs) take centre stage
The regime does not feel the need to expand its support base; security forces continue to repress activism in society
Public sector purges continue. Loyalists will ensure a required referendum turnout
Lukashenka gradually regains his status as security forces continue large-scale purges before the referendum
The regime musters loyalists ahead of the referendum as the state devolves some social guarantees to businesses
State apparatus consolidates on the eve of the referendum as security forces expand repressions
As the regime represses private businesses, the security forces enforce political inertia in society
Security forces continue purges as the regime aims to depoliticize society before the referendum
Purges in anticipation of the referendum and questionable solutions to address the budget deficit
Belarusian government resumes support for public sector, Lukashenka has doubts about referendum
Lukashenka defines the agenda for the referendum as purges of opponents and the media continue
The regime continues to flout the law as suppression of civil society and media activities continues
The regime refuses to buy the loyalty of the population; the inadvertence of constitutional innovations
State expropriation of funds from business and the population continues; the price of dissent remains high
The Union State: Towards Crisis A
The security forces suppress media audiences as covid-19 disinformation fosters distrust
The regime buys the loyalty of the state apparatus as the momentum for reform decreases
Constitutional amendments provide guarantees for Lukashenka as the population and businesses are lined up to address budget shortfalls
Taxing the population and business in anticipation of sanctions as spy mania returns
Unity coerced by repression as the authorities repeat the COVID-19 mistakes of spring 2020
Tensions between public administration and the security forces rise as the search for extra-budgetary finances intensifies
Repression of the environmental sector and public sector protectionism
Lukashenka politicises education as state-owned companies reduce their commitment to employment support
A return to purchasing the loyalty of state employees and a deal with loyal businesses to address sanctions losses
Lukashenka is turning back the clock to before 2020 as security forces dismantle infrastructure supporting vulnerable groups
The ruling elite
The ruling class engages in liberal rhetoric while restructuring the private medical sector to favour regime allies 
May 9 – May 15
Restrictions on medical businesses, tobacco, and investment; redistribution in favour of state business and loyalist entrepreneurs 
May 2 – May 8
Repressions in the banking and public sectors; seizures in anticipation of sanctions effects
April 25 – May 1
Escalation of repression but forced concessions for business
April 18 – April 24
The siloviki strengthen their position in the leadership, the influence of the National Bank on economic policy falters
April 11 – April 17
The authorities are raising tax rates on the population and business as the security forces maintain repression
April 4 – April 10
Competition for resources intensifies amongst the ruling class as the state increases confiscations from dissidents
March 28 – April 3
The regime placates loyalists by avoiding direct participation in aggression; direct control of the economy intensifies
March 21 – March 27
The struggle for the minds of loyalists as contradictory measures to support the economy are announced
March 14 – March 20
The government reassures the population as security forces repress dissidents
March 7 – March 13
The regime widens divisions in society as state propaganda aligns with the Kremlin war agenda
February 28 – March 6
The referendum proceeds as loyalists are indoctrinated with the Kremlin agenda
February 21 – February 27
The referendum picks up pace. State media adjusts its approach, and government-sponsored NGOs (GoNGOs) take centre stage
February 14 – February 20
The regime does not feel the need to expand its support base; security forces continue to repress activism in society
February 7 – February 13
Public sector purges continue. Loyalists will ensure a required referendum turnout
January 31 – February 6
Lukashenka gradually regains his status as security forces continue large-scale purges before the referendum
January 17 – January 23
The regime musters loyalists ahead of the referendum as the state devolves some social guarantees to businesses
January 10 – January 16
State apparatus consolidates on the eve of the referendum as security forces expand repressions
December 20 – December 26
As the regime represses private businesses, the security forces enforce political inertia in society
December 13 – December 19
Security forces continue purges as the regime aims to depoliticize society before the referendum
December 6 – December 12
Purges in anticipation of the referendum and questionable solutions to address the budget deficit
November 29 – December 5
Belarusian government resumes support for public sector, Lukashenka has doubts about referendum
November 22 – November 28
Lukashenka defines the agenda for the referendum as purges of opponents and the media continue
November 15 – November 21
The regime continues to flout the law as suppression of civil society and media activities continues
November 8 – November 14
The regime refuses to buy the loyalty of the population; the inadvertence of constitutional innovations
November 1 – November 7
State expropriation of funds from business and the population continues; the price of dissent remains high
October 25 – October 31
The Union State: Towards Crisis A
October 18 – October 24
The security forces suppress media audiences as covid-19 disinformation fosters distrust
October 11 – October 17
The regime buys the loyalty of the state apparatus as the momentum for reform decreases
October 4 – October 10
Constitutional amendments provide guarantees for Lukashenka as the population and businesses are lined up to address budget shortfalls
September 27 – October 3
Taxing the population and business in anticipation of sanctions as spy mania returns
September 20 – September 26
Unity coerced by repression as the authorities repeat the COVID-19 mistakes of spring 2020
September 13 – September 19
Tensions between public administration and the security forces rise as the search for extra-budgetary finances intensifies
September 6 – September 12
Repression of the environmental sector and public sector protectionism
August 30 – September 5
Lukashenka politicises education as state-owned companies reduce their commitment to employment support
August 23 – August 29
A return to purchasing the loyalty of state employees and a deal with loyal businesses to address sanctions losses 
August 16 – August 22
Lukashenka is turning back the clock to before 2020 as security forces dismantle infrastructure supporting vulnerable groups
August 9 – August 15