All trends
Lukashenka’s Populist Tactics and Repression: Undermining Democracy Ahead of the 2024 Election Campaign
The Shifting Landscape: Lukashenka’s Position Weakens as the Ruling Class Adapts to Transformations
State influence over the media landscape increases; the public sector recovers from sanctions
Opaque state investment and repression of dissidents continue
The government increases support for the public sector; officials increase businesses’ social obligations
The ruling class rallies around Lukashenka as the government focuses on import substitution
The Cult of Lukashenka and Economic Stimulus
Fines shore up the state budget as the authorities target private pharmacies
Lukashenka aims to retain personal control as the authorities scale up repression and expropriations
Lukashenka is forced to agree a degree of power-sharing as the security forces shore up state funds
The Lukashenka regime intensifies repression as the leadership urges officials to economise
Security forces intensify repression as the regime resumes financial support for the state sector
The regime demotivates opponents with repression and continues to intervene in the economy
Regime-allied independentists are under pressure from proponents of a “Russian World”
The regime fights for survival as the economy is reoriented to support the security forces
Financial support for state-owned companies increases as Lukashenka deflects popular discontent onto businessmen
Pension rules tighten as persecution of the 2020 demonstrators continues
The regime is progressively more isolated from the people as property seizures from the “disloyal” increase
Rapidly changing workforce and regulations; stable functioning machine of violence
Repressive Sovietization of society with asset seizures from businesses and regime opponents
2022: A reactionary regime consolidates around Lukashenka
Lukashenka regains popularity as the security forces intensify the persecution of opponents
Redistributing assets: expropriation from opponents and apartments for the military
Opponents silenced, and businesses targeted for violating price controls
Democratic activists are purged ahead of elections as private sector finance is raided to shore up the public sector
The public sector is counting on import substitution, while Lukashenka focuses on the IT sector
The persecution of dissidents continues as the government seeks to counteract the fallout from Lukashenka’s price control decrees
The authorities continue to fine businesses and remain isolated from society
Surcharges on businesses and disloyal groups; non-stop repressions
Lukashenka’s populism destabilises trade as the regime targets exiled democratic leaders
The regime is intervening more directly in the economy and society
Lukashenka pivots to populism as the state apparatus seeks to suppress inflation
Lukashenka delays the introduction of the collegial management; the regime offers a dialogue with the loyalist opposition
Lukashenka makes contradictory statements regarding dissidents. Conciliatory gestures mixed with support for further repression
Continuing repression of activists and coercion of loyalty from private businesses
The ruling class aims to soften the regime’s image, but security forces insist on the logic of repression
The support base of Lukashenka’s regime narrows as demands for more collegial decision-making grow
The ruling elite
Lukashenka’s Populist Tactics and Repression: Undermining Democracy Ahead of the 2024 Election Campaign 
May 22 – May 28
The Shifting Landscape: Lukashenka’s Position Weakens as the Ruling Class Adapts to Transformations 
May 15 – May 21
State influence over the media landscape increases; the public sector recovers from sanctions
May 8 – May 14
Opaque state investment and repression of dissidents continue 
May 1 – May 7
The government increases support for the public sector; officials increase businesses’ social obligations
April 24 – April 30
The ruling class rallies around Lukashenka as the government focuses on import substitution
April 17 – April 23
The Cult of Lukashenka and Economic Stimulus
April 10 – April 16
Fines shore up the state budget as the authorities target private pharmacies
April 3 – April 9
Lukashenka aims to retain personal control as the authorities scale up repression and expropriations
March 27 – April 2
Lukashenka is forced to agree a degree of power-sharing as the security forces shore up state funds
March 20 – March 26
The Lukashenka regime intensifies repression as the leadership urges officials to economise
March 13 – March 19
Security forces intensify repression as the regime resumes financial support for the state sector
March 6 – March 12
The regime demotivates opponents with repression and continues to intervene in the economy
February 27 – March 5
Regime-allied independentists are under pressure from proponents of a “Russian World”
February 20 – February 26
The regime fights for survival as the economy is reoriented to support the security forces
February 13 – February 19
Financial support for state-owned companies increases as Lukashenka deflects popular discontent onto businessmen
February 6 – February 12
Pension rules tighten as persecution of the 2020 demonstrators continues
January 30 – February 5
The regime is progressively more isolated from the people as property seizures from the “disloyal” increase
January 23 – January 29
Rapidly changing workforce and regulations; stable functioning machine of violence
January 16 – January 22
Repressive Sovietization of society with asset seizures from businesses and regime opponents
January 9 – January 15
2022: A reactionary regime consolidates around Lukashenka
December 26 – January 1
Lukashenka regains popularity as the security forces intensify the persecution of opponents
December 12 – December 18
Redistributing assets: expropriation from opponents and apartments for the military
December 5 – December 11
Opponents silenced, and businesses targeted for violating price controls
November 28 – December 4
Democratic activists are purged ahead of elections as private sector finance is raided to shore up the public sector
November 21 – November 27
The public sector is counting on import substitution, while Lukashenka focuses on the IT sector
November 14 – November 20
The persecution of dissidents continues as the government seeks to counteract the fallout from Lukashenka’s price control decrees
November 7 – November 13
The authorities continue to fine businesses and remain isolated from society
October 31 – November 6
Surcharges on businesses and disloyal groups; non-stop repressions
October 24 – October 30
Lukashenka’s populism destabilises trade as the regime targets exiled democratic leaders
October 17 – October 23
The regime is intervening more directly in the economy and society
October 10 – October 16
Lukashenka pivots to populism as the state apparatus seeks to suppress inflation
October 3 – October 9
Lukashenka delays the introduction of the collegial management; the regime offers a dialogue with the loyalist opposition
September 26 – October 2
Lukashenka makes contradictory statements regarding dissidents. Conciliatory gestures mixed with support for further repression
September 19 – September 25
Continuing repression of activists and coercion of loyalty from private businesses
September 12 – September 18
The ruling class aims to soften the regime’s image, but security forces insist on the logic of repression
September 5 – September 11
The support base of Lukashenka’s regime narrows as demands for more collegial decision-making grow
August 29 – September 4