Lukashenka is the Law Here: Propagandists Strengthen His Cult of Personality

The ruling class is sending strong signals to the domestic audience: security forces will continue to repress and depoliticize supporters of change. At the same time, propagandists are strengthening Lukashenka’s cult of personality, justifying his actions as being above the law.

As the 2025 presidential campaign approaches, the purge of dissenters from the state sector continues. Political prisoners are being given longer prison sentences. Protesters from 2020 and other government opponents are still being persecuted, arrested, and their freedoms restricted.

Propagandists continue to defend the actions of the security forces, elevating the ruling class above the law.

Meanwhile, regime enforcers are increasing pressure on society through the financial sector. In the three months since the implementation of a super-access payment system, security forces and banks have frozen transfers totaling more than USD 4 million. These figures are likely to increase as funds are expropriated in favor of the state.

The ruling class is increasing budgetary expropriations at the expense of private carriers. Since the beginning of 2024, the Transport Inspection of the Ministry of Transport and Communications has confiscated 70 buses and 280 passenger cars. Additionally, officials continue to complicate conditions for private businesses in favor of state monopolists. However, it is unlikely that the worsening quality and availability of transportation services will lead to increased public discontent.

The government continues to shed social obligations towards workers. Starting in 2025, the minimum insurance period in Belarus will be increased. The establishment no longer fears rising tensions or negative reactions from society.

The ruling class uses state sociological surveys for propaganda purposes, although it is doubtful that these surveys reflect the true sentiments of the population. This negatively impacts governance quality and leads to unpopular decisions. As a result, a series of measures that are unpopular with the public may lead to growing frustration with leadership errors and another outbreak of discontent.

Since 2020, there has been a trend towards isolating the ruling class from society and reducing feedback. The main pillars of the regime are the security forces, propagandists, and the state sector, with significant stabilizing support from the Kremlin in the regime’s architecture.

Thus, the ruling class will continue efforts to reduce public expectations of the state and the state apparatus, including through the use of security forces.