Trends
All themes
2022
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
August 1 – August 7
A new ambassador went to Moscow with a portfolio of instructions from Lukashenka
Belarus-Russia relations
In response to Western sanctions: support for Russia against Ukraine and re-orientation to the “far abroad”
Belarus-West relations
Leadership disputes within democratic forces continue to grow as the influence of political organisations on the domestic agenda declines
Society and political parties
The nuclear policy will remain an essential foreign policy tool for Minsk
Security issues
The authorities seize resources from businesses and banks as well as purge some ideologists and siloviki
The ruling elite
July 25 – July 31
A big turn to the East
Belarus-Russia relations
Minsk develops an export diversification strategy in response to Western sanctions
Belarus-West relations
Criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s office continues; activists are demotivated due to prolonged confrontation
Society and political parties
Modernisation of Belarusian tanks; necessity or choice?
Security issues
Regional authorities mobilisation for harvest time; state investment in the economy returns
The ruling elite
July 18 – July 24
A new ambassador but old problems
Belarus-Russia relations
The West ignores signals from Minsk as the regime bets further afield
Belarus-West relations
Leadership struggles amongst democratic forces as the emphasis on forceful regime change increases
Society and political parties
Minsk continues “its game”
Security issues
Redistribution of income to the regime; coerced loyalty of the population
The ruling elite
July 11 – July 17
The Western Threat and Financial Improvisation
Belarus-Russia relations
The West softens some sanctions against Russia, but confirms pressure on Belarus
Belarus-West relations
Radicalization of the positions of supporters of change spurs reformatting in democratic forces
Society and political parties
The post-Soviet space is again “bursting at the seams”
Security issues
The authorities repress civil society and trade unions while continuing with expropriations from businesses
The ruling elite
July 4 – July 10
Spatial expansion and yet more “unified” spaces
Belarus-Russia relations
The Belarusian regime escalates as the West prepares the seventh package of sanctions
Belarus-West relations
Democrats revise their strategy as the mood of civil society polarises in response to repression
Society and political parties
Minsk’s belligerence towards neighbours continues
Security issues
Derogation of responsibility from the state to citizens and businesses in the social sphere
The ruling elite
June 27 – July 3
International influence wavers, and the protest movement polarises
Society and political parties
Forum of the Regions – with Belarus as a region
Belarus-Russia relations
The West labels Russia a strategic security threat, while the Belarusian regime swears allegiance to the Kremlin
Belarus-West relations
Minsk acts tough towards the West
Security issues
Polls suggest confidence in state institutions is rising, though security forces continue to compel obedience
The ruling elite
June 20 – June 26
1+1. Preparing for a long confrontation
Belarus-Russia relations
The European Commission considers the future of Belarus as Lukashenka blackmails the West with nuclear weapons
Belarus-West relations
Civil society develops infrastructure to help emigrants; democratic forces focus on the European choice
Society and political parties
Moscow seeks to keep Minsk in its back pocket
Security issues
The authorities cut social guarantees as security forces stamp out dissent
The ruling elite
