Trends
All themes
2022
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
June 20 – June 26
1+1. Preparing for a long confrontation
Belarus-Russia relations
The European Commission considers the future of Belarus as Lukashenka blackmails the West with nuclear weapons
Belarus-West relations
Civil society develops infrastructure to help emigrants; democratic forces focus on the European choice
Society and political parties
Moscow seeks to keep Minsk in its back pocket
Security issues
The authorities cut social guarantees as security forces stamp out dissent
The ruling elite
June 13 – June 19
Import substitution. Microelectronics in isolation
Belarus-Russia relations
The West deepens the isolation of Belarus and turns it into an arena of geopolitical rivalry with Russia
Belarus-West relations
Democratic forces gradually consolidate a pro-EU position; civil society focuses on counter-propaganda and advocating for political prisoners
Society and political parties
The CSTO will not become an analogue of NATO
Security issues
Lukashenka exerts direct control as imbalances in the state apparatus grow
The ruling elite
June 6 – June 12
A trade federation approaches autarchy
Belarus-Russia relations
Ukrainian grain transit through Belarus faces opposition from the West
Belarus-West relations
Civil society consolidates the pro-European audience as activists block state propaganda on the Internet
Society and political parties
Minsk demonstrates its military capabilities to try to force concessions from the West
Security issues
Unbalanced economic policy, purging disloyal investors and entrepreneurs
The ruling elite
May 30 – June 5
Pessimistic forecast? Yes, but it’s OK.
Belarus-Russia relations
The EU introduces the sixth package of sanctions against Belarus amid discussion of a transit scheme for Ukrainian grain
Belarus-West relations
Democrats maintain regime isolation. Centre-rightists renew cooperation with EU political bloc
Society and political parties
Restrictions on competition in the medical sphere as authorities impose price controls
The ruling elite
Lukashenka has a unique view of modern warfare
Security issues
May 23 – May 29
Industrial cooperation and another pressure point
Belarus-Russia relations
The Belarusian regime is trying to justify participation in aggression and soften Western sanctions
Belarus-West relations
Tensions are growing in democratic forces; initiatives are testing the scope of activities in Belarus
Society and political parties
On the issue of creating the Southern Operational Command of the Belarusian Army
Security issues
The state expands surcharges to taxi drivers and traders as state budgets are redistributed to the security forces
The ruling elite
May 16 – May 22
Import Substitution Festival: Forecasts and Prospects
Belarus-Russia relations
Belarusian potash in exchange for easing Western sanctions?
Belarus-West relations
Democrats intensify sanctions rhetoric as Tsepkala unites critics of Tsikhanouskaya
Society and political parties
CSTO Summit: Going Together, But in Different Directions
Security issues
The state monopolises medical services; Beltelecom aims for total video surveillance
The ruling elite
May 9 – May 15
Import substitution, arms exchange and energy in rubles
Belarus-Russia relations
As the West tightens sanctions, the Belarusian regime distances itself from the war
Belarus-West relations
Democratic forces shape the international agenda as partisan protests against the regime continue
Society and political parties
Minsk toughens rhetoric as the West declines to engage in dialogue
Security issues
The ruling class engages in liberal rhetoric while restructuring the private medical sector to favour regime allies
The ruling elite