Trends
All themes
2023
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
September 11 – September 17
Basic Integration Course: North Korea
Belarus-Russia relations
Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet increases international pressure on the regime, and democratic forces rally around the idea of European integration
Society and political parties
Lukashenka calls on neighboring countries for friendship, while the European Parliament calls for an ICC warrant for his arrest
Belarus-West relations
Is the government trying to emulate the business model of PMC Wagner?
Security issues
The government is priming the economy with significant injections of funds ahead of the upcoming elections
The ruling elite
September 4 – September 10
Isolationism as a Fundamental Political and Economic Strategy
Belarus-Russia relations
The “Passport Decree” raises concerns in the West and prompts further criticism of the regime
Belarus-West relations
Dems forces are consolidating political migration, fatigue is growing among supporters of the force scenario
Society and political parties
The regime is trying to appear more conciliatory and transparent, but its efforts are not proving successful
Security issues
Filtering raids by security forces in the public sector, high profitability of business in exchange for periodic expropriations
The ruling elite
August 14 – August 20
Import substitution comes of age: machine tools, aircraft, MAZ, etc
Belarus-Russia relations
The regime leverages distant allies and nuclear weapons to confront the West
Belarus-West relations
Sanction pressure weakened the regime, society’s fatigue from confrontation with the regime
Society and political parties
Lukashenka issues an ultimatum to Ukraine: Russia is preparing for a new offensive
Security issues
Regime pre-election measures include an increase in public sector salaries, restrictions on the private sector, and more repression of opponents
The ruling elite
August 7 – August 13
Minsk is thinking about energy consumption. Belarusian fuel may disappear from the Russian market
Belarus-Russia relations
On the third anniversary of the 2020 protests, the West has not forgotten about Belarus as the regime calls for dialogue
Belarus-West relations
Democrats call for a boycott of the 2024 elections as the United Provisional Cabinet continues to isolate pro-government organisations
Society and political parties
Credit of distrust: in response to the expansion of the Wagner PMC base in Belarus, neighbouring countries strengthen border protection
Security issues
Regime enforcers plan non-stop repression as the ruling class prepares for elections
The ruling elite
July 31 – August 6
Lukashenka buttresses support in the western regions. The National Bank is concerned about overheating the economy
The ruling elite
Wagnerians, Russian nuclear weapons, and the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant. Security factors of the regime?
Security issues
The Coordinating Council increases its influence on the selection of United Transitional Cabinet personnel; tension in civil society is rising
Society and political parties
Poland and Lithuania are preparing for a complete blockade of Belarus; the EU has introduced a new package of sanctions
Belarus-West relations
The Belarusian share of the Russian pie: permission to participate in state programs in the regions
Belarus-Russia relations
July 24 – July 30
Regional Integration with Belarus as a Russian Region
Belarus-Russia relations
The regime writes off the UN and negotiations with the West
Belarus-West relations
Forced regime change scenarios gain momentum as crowdfunding for political prisoners breaks records
Society and political parties
Wagner PMC and illegal migrants: hybrid threats to the Baltic countries and Poland are increasing
Security issues
The state continues to monopolise medical services as the ruling class prepares for elections
The ruling elite
July 17 – July 23
A difficult start to import substitution as Russo-Belarusian integration acquires Juche motifs
Belarus-Russia relations
The West threatens the regime with The ICC in Hague and new sanctions; the regime responds with talk of nuclear strikes
Belarus-West relations
Democrats enlist the support of the European Parliament; Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition consolidates the diaspora
Society and political parties
Welcome to Hell! Wagner PMC receives a Belarusian residence permit as the regime threatens to attack Poland and western Ukraine
Security issues
Lukashenka criticises agricultural barons as state-sponsored discrimination against regime critics continues
The ruling elite