Trends
All themes
2023
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
March 13 – March 19
The “Authoritarian International” at Work or a “Far Arc” Commonwealth
Belarus-Russia relations
The shadow of an international tribunal hangs over the Belarusian regime
Belarus-West relations
Democratic forces strengthen their influence in Washington and create the infrastructure of a digital state
Society and political parties
Is the regime preparing to impose Martial Law?
Security issues
The Lukashenka regime intensifies repression as the leadership urges officials to economise
The ruling elite
March 6 – March 12
Belarus-Ukraine tensions rise following military attack, as Russia funds sustainable development and plans to crush US dollar with new currency
Belarus-Russia relations
Stumbling over Potash: Western Illusions regarding the Belarusian regime block agreement on sanctions
Belarus-West relations
Democratic forces are consolidating strident regime critics, and the support for forceful change grows
Society and political parties
Minsk leverages the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
Security issues
Security forces intensify repression as the regime resumes financial support for the state sector
The ruling elite
February 27 – March 5
Multi-vector Diplomacy: The Chinese Alternative and Access to the Sea
Belarus-Russia relations
While the new package of EU sanctions remains stalled some Western countries are taking the initiative
Belarus-West relations
Democrats focus on internal disputes as the power bloc of the Tsikhanouskaya Cabinet strengthens its position
Society and political parties
In relations with Minsk, China will consider the opinion of the West
Security issues
The regime demotivates opponents with repression and continues to intervene in the economy
The ruling elite
February 20 – February 26
Minsk will try to exploit Chinese peace initiatives
Security issues
Democratic forces increase international pressure on the regime as Tsikhanouskaya initiates action supporting Ukraine
Society and political parties
The West is preparing to punish Belarus on the anniversary of the Russian military aggression against Ukraine
Belarus-West relations
Integration or creeping annexation?
Belarus-Russia relations
Regime-allied independentists are under pressure from proponents of a “Russian World”
The ruling elite
February 13 – February 19
Neverending Union State building
Belarus-Russia relations
The West’s efforts to persuade Lukashenka not to expand participation in the war against Ukraine were unsuccessful
Belarus-West relations
Democrats isolate the regime in international relations; the Coordination Council is trying to increase its influence in the democratic movement
Society and political parties
Su-25BY: a tactic, not an objective
Security issues
The regime fights for survival as the economy is reoriented to support the security forces
The ruling elite
February 6 – February 12
Minsk and Warsaw on the verge of another confrontation
Security issues
Financial support for state-owned companies increases as Lukashenka deflects popular discontent onto businessmen
The ruling elite
Restructuring Democratic Forces: Pazniak’s Security Council vs Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet
Society and political parties
Poland is at the forefront of Western pressure as the Belarusian regime tries to play peacemaker
Belarus-West relations
Reducing entry and exit points
Belarus-Russia relations
January 30 – February 5
From Africa with Love
Belarus-Russia relations
The EU prepares sanctions in the event of a new invasion from Belarus. The US leaves open the possibility of dialogue with regime
Belarus-West relations
Pazniak strengthens his influence on the democratic agenda as Tsikhanouskaya strengthens cooperation with the Council of Europe
Society and political parties
“Iskander” missile deployments will have political consequences
Security issues
Pension rules tighten as persecution of the 2020 demonstrators continues
The ruling elite