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March 4 – March 10, 2024
The ruling elite

Elections 2025: Lukashenka Forever

The situation got worse
Elections 2025: Lukashenka Forever
Карикатура: Александр Горбаруков

Lukashenka reassures loyalists of his plans to retain the presidential chair after the 2025 elections. At the same time, he seeks to disorient opponents with contradictory statements regarding his candidacy next year. Concurrently, the politician is conducting personnel rotations to strengthen the loyalty of the state apparatus in anticipation of the 2025 electoral campaign.

Lukashenka has made ambivalent remarks about running for the presidency in the 2025 elections. The politician has always been known for his opaque statements on this matter before every such electoral campaign. Thus, the dictator aims to communicate with diverse audiences, who interpret his statements differently.

On one hand, regime supporters (especially security forces and propagandists) have received a signal that Lukashenka will remain in office for another five years. This statement significantly consolidates the ruling class and reinforces the loyalty of the regime’s beneficiaries – security forces, propagandists, and the ideological apparatus.

On the other hand, Lukashenka attempts to maintain intrigue for opponents regarding his nomination – and preemptively tries to depoliticize them. As a result, he avoids excessive activity from regime critics and their mobilization.

It should be noted that among certain population groups (including some civil servants), fatigue from Lukashenka’s long tenure occasionally accumulates. However, the politician’s “hesitations” once again pacify this audience – and offer hope for his departure from governing the country. For his departure from the “presidential” chair, Lukashenka sets the following condition: opponents must renounce their claims to power (which, however, does not guarantee a reassessment of agreements after a deal between the parties).

The politician is already preparing for the presidential campaign, as evidenced by another round of personnel rotation. Lukashenka is placing security personnel from his inner circle into state positions ahead of the 2025 elections (as before the 2020 elections). Lukashenka’s personal bodyguard has been appointed as the first deputy head of the presidential administration.

Interestingly, in the same week, a new deputy head of the presidential administration was appointed, who is not from the security sector and has Western education. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to significantly affect a change in economic policy. However, such a personnel move gives hope for minor measures towards economic liberalization and the unleashing of private initiative.

Throughout his presidential career, Lukashenka periodically conducts personnel rotations to prevent the creation of stable connections by the nomenclature.

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