October 9 – October 15, 2023
The ruling elite

Lukashenka is increasing contributions to his personal “insurance fund,” and the government is continuing to allocate funds to the state sector

The situation has not changed
Lukashenka is increasing contributions to his personal “insurance fund,” and the government is continuing to allocate funds to the state sector
Фото: "Зеркало"

The authorities are implementing budgetary measures to create a favorable economic environment for the 2024 parliamentary and local council elections, as well as the presidential elections. The ruling class is building a financial safety net by transferring extra funds to Lukashenka’s fund for quick resource redistribution.

The Belarusian leadership is still supporting the economy with substantial injections of funds and offering incentives to the state sector. Owners of shopping centers, the Ministry of the Anti-Monopoly Regulation, and the Minsk City Executive Committee have signed an agreement to provide space in shopping centers to domestic manufacturers on favorable terms.

The government is establishing a financial safety net for 2024 to support social and economic policies. The main approach to maintaining stability involves injecting substantial funds into the public sector during the election campaign for parliament and local councils, as well as leading up to the 2025 presidential elections. The Belarusian treasury is expected to receive almost BYN 4 billion without any charge from foreign countries.

Propagandists have started preparing for the upcoming election campaign and the promotion of candidates loyal to the ruling class. Ideologues are advocating for Lukashenka’s political agenda and emphasizing the social guarantees provided by the state.

The ruling class continues to distribute public resources to enhance the loyalty of the security forces. The government has reduced the retirement age for prosecutor’s office employees by 5 years.

The Belarusian leadership is increasing spending on the security apparatus (law enforcement, courts, and rescuers), even though their share of the national budget is slightly decreasing. This is likely due to the reallocation of finances in favor of the military. At the same time, authorities are increasing contributions to Lukashenka’s fund for the prompt redistribution of resources during the election campaign. Almost BYN 1 billion will be allocated from the national budget to Lukashenka’s fund.

Controllers play a significant role in regulating the economy and overseeing the operations of state-sector enterprises, including investment projects. State Control Committee has helped save more than 30 million rubles during the construction of the plant in Orsha.

The government anticipates a substantial increase in tax revenue in 2024 – a 31.6% rise compared to 2023. Tax officials are likely to intensify inspections and conduct more raids to secure additional payments from private businesses.

The regime’s enforcers continue to discourage supporters of change through criminal prosecutions and detentions while expanding extremist lists.

In summary, the ruling class aims to secure the loyalty of specific population groups by reallocating additional resources in their favor. Opponents are expected to be discouraged through harsh repression.


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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.

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