All trends
Public sector purges continue. Loyalists will ensure a required referendum turnout
Lukashenka gradually regains his status as security forces continue large-scale purges before the referendum
The regime musters loyalists ahead of the referendum as the state devolves some social guarantees to businesses
State apparatus consolidates on the eve of the referendum as security forces expand repressions
As the regime represses private businesses, the security forces enforce political inertia in society
Security forces continue purges as the regime aims to depoliticize society before the referendum
Purges in anticipation of the referendum and questionable solutions to address the budget deficit
Belarusian government resumes support for public sector, Lukashenka has doubts about referendum
Lukashenka defines the agenda for the referendum as purges of opponents and the media continue
The regime continues to flout the law as suppression of civil society and media activities continues
The regime refuses to buy the loyalty of the population; the inadvertence of constitutional innovations
State expropriation of funds from business and the population continues; the price of dissent remains high
The Union State: Towards Crisis A
The security forces suppress media audiences as covid-19 disinformation fosters distrust
The regime buys the loyalty of the state apparatus as the momentum for reform decreases
Constitutional amendments provide guarantees for Lukashenka as the population and businesses are lined up to address budget shortfalls
Taxing the population and business in anticipation of sanctions as spy mania returns
Unity coerced by repression as the authorities repeat the COVID-19 mistakes of spring 2020
Tensions between public administration and the security forces rise as the search for extra-budgetary finances intensifies
Repression of the environmental sector and public sector protectionism
Lukashenka politicises education as state-owned companies reduce their commitment to employment support
A return to purchasing the loyalty of state employees and a deal with loyal businesses to address sanctions losses
Lukashenka is turning back the clock to before 2020 as security forces dismantle infrastructure supporting vulnerable groups
Lukashenka uses external threats to consolidate power; security forces repress 2020 demonstrators
Purges in the third sector, including in the media, continue before the upcoming constitutional referendum; security forces aim to compel the private business to loyalty
Repression continues, the state plans to increase seizures from the population and business
The regime is dismantling the institutions of civil society as it prepares for a constitutional referendum
Security forces smash independent media infrastructure as large-scale repression continues in Minsk and the regions
The authorities continue with large-scale purges of Civil Society and prepare to replace the High Technology Park
Lukashenka escalates his rhetoric as the security forces continue to seize businesses
The authorities increase cultural censorship as conditions for small business deteriorate
The government cuts funding for public servants and signals the possibility of lessening repression
Security forces continue purges in preparation for a future constitutional referendum while the government continues to prop up the public sector
The regime pursues collective governance plans as constant repression depletes resources
The Regime attempts to destroy independent media but is not ready to put its right to power to the test
The regime continues to discuss constitutional reform while rewarding the loyalty of favoured business interests
Lukashenka consolidates regime loyalty and reins in the development of political parties
The ruling elite
Public sector purges continue. Loyalists will ensure a required referendum turnout 
January 31 – February 6
Lukashenka gradually regains his status as security forces continue large-scale purges before the referendum
January 17 – January 23
The regime musters loyalists ahead of the referendum as the state devolves some social guarantees to businesses
January 10 – January 16
State apparatus consolidates on the eve of the referendum as security forces expand repressions
December 20 – December 26
As the regime represses private businesses, the security forces enforce political inertia in society
December 13 – December 19
Security forces continue purges as the regime aims to depoliticize society before the referendum
December 6 – December 12
Purges in anticipation of the referendum and questionable solutions to address the budget deficit 
November 29 – December 5
Belarusian government resumes support for public sector, Lukashenka has doubts about referendum
November 22 – November 28
Lukashenka defines the agenda for the referendum as purges of opponents and the media continue
November 15 – November 21
The regime continues to flout the law as suppression of civil society and media activities continues
November 8 – November 14
The regime refuses to buy the loyalty of the population; the inadvertence of constitutional innovations
November 1 – November 7
State expropriation of funds from business and the population continues; the price of dissent remains high
October 25 – October 31
The Union State: Towards Crisis A
October 18 – October 24
The security forces suppress media audiences as covid-19 disinformation fosters distrust
October 11 – October 17
The regime buys the loyalty of the state apparatus as the momentum for reform decreases
October 4 – October 10
Constitutional amendments provide guarantees for Lukashenka as the population and businesses are lined up to address budget shortfalls
September 27 – October 3
Taxing the population and business in anticipation of sanctions as spy mania returns
September 20 – September 26
Unity coerced by repression as the authorities repeat the COVID-19 mistakes of spring 2020
September 13 – September 19
Tensions between public administration and the security forces rise as the search for extra-budgetary finances intensifies
September 6 – September 12
Repression of the environmental sector and public sector protectionism
August 30 – September 5
Lukashenka politicises education as state-owned companies reduce their commitment to employment support
August 23 – August 29
A return to purchasing the loyalty of state employees and a deal with loyal businesses to address sanctions losses 
August 16 – August 22
Lukashenka is turning back the clock to before 2020 as security forces dismantle infrastructure supporting vulnerable groups
August 9 – August 15
Lukashenka uses external threats to consolidate power; security forces repress 2020 demonstrators
August 2 – August 8
Purges in the third sector, including in the media, continue before the upcoming constitutional referendum; security forces aim to compel the private business to loyalty
July 26 – August 1
Repression continues, the state plans to increase seizures from the population and business
July 19 – July 25
The regime is dismantling the institutions of civil society as it prepares for a constitutional referendum
July 12 – July 18
Security forces smash independent media infrastructure as large-scale repression continues in Minsk and the regions
July 5 – July 11
The authorities continue with large-scale purges of Civil Society and prepare to replace the High Technology Park
June 28 – July 4
Lukashenka escalates his rhetoric as the security forces continue to seize businesses
June 21 – June 27
The authorities increase cultural censorship as conditions for small business deteriorate
June 14 – June 20
The government cuts funding for public servants and signals the possibility of lessening repression
June 7 – June 13
Security forces continue purges in preparation for a future constitutional referendum while the government continues to prop up the public sector
May 31 – June 6
The regime pursues collective governance plans as constant repression depletes resources
May 24 – May 30
The Regime attempts to destroy independent media but is not ready to put its right to power to the test
May 17 – May 23
The regime continues to discuss constitutional reform while rewarding the loyalty of favoured business interests
May 10 – May 16
Lukashenka consolidates regime loyalty and reins in the development of political parties
May 3 – May 9