All trends
Lukashenka makes contradictory statements regarding dissidents. Conciliatory gestures mixed with support for further repression
Continuing repression of activists and coercion of loyalty from private businesses
The ruling class aims to soften the regime’s image, but security forces insist on the logic of repression
The support base of Lukashenka’s regime narrows as demands for more collegial decision-making grow
The authorities foment fear in society as Lukashenka directs the creation of government-aligned “NGOs”
Increased government intervention in the economy and dysfunction in public administration
Direct control of the economy, increased censorship, and persecution of cultural dissidents
The authorities seize resources from businesses and banks as well as purge some ideologists and siloviki
Regional authorities mobilisation for harvest time; state investment in the economy returns
Redistribution of income to the regime; coerced loyalty of the population
The authorities repress civil society and trade unions while continuing with expropriations from businesses
Derogation of responsibility from the state to citizens and businesses in the social sphere
Polls suggest confidence in state institutions is rising, though security forces continue to compel obedience
The authorities cut social guarantees as security forces stamp out dissent
Lukashenka exerts direct control as imbalances in the state apparatus grow
Unbalanced economic policy, purging disloyal investors and entrepreneurs
Restrictions on competition in the medical sphere as authorities impose price controls
The state expands surcharges to taxi drivers and traders as state budgets are redistributed to the security forces
The state monopolises medical services; Beltelecom aims for total video surveillance
The ruling class engages in liberal rhetoric while restructuring the private medical sector to favour regime allies
Restrictions on medical businesses, tobacco, and investment; redistribution in favour of state business and loyalist entrepreneurs
Repressions in the banking and public sectors; seizures in anticipation of sanctions effects
Escalation of repression but forced concessions for business
The siloviki strengthen their position in the leadership, the influence of the National Bank on economic policy falters
The authorities are raising tax rates on the population and business as the security forces maintain repression
Competition for resources intensifies amongst the ruling class as the state increases confiscations from dissidents
The regime placates loyalists by avoiding direct participation in aggression; direct control of the economy intensifies
The struggle for the minds of loyalists as contradictory measures to support the economy are announced
The government reassures the population as security forces repress dissidents
The regime widens divisions in society as state propaganda aligns with the Kremlin war agenda
The referendum proceeds as loyalists are indoctrinated with the Kremlin agenda
The referendum picks up pace. State media adjusts its approach, and government-sponsored NGOs (GoNGOs) take centre stage
The regime does not feel the need to expand its support base; security forces continue to repress activism in society
Public sector purges continue. Loyalists will ensure a required referendum turnout
Lukashenka gradually regains his status as security forces continue large-scale purges before the referendum
The regime musters loyalists ahead of the referendum as the state devolves some social guarantees to businesses
State apparatus consolidates on the eve of the referendum as security forces expand repressions
The ruling elite
Lukashenka makes contradictory statements regarding dissidents. Conciliatory gestures mixed with support for further repression 
September 19 – September 25
Continuing repression of activists and coercion of loyalty from private businesses 
September 12 – September 18
The ruling class aims to soften the regime’s image, but security forces insist on the logic of repression 
September 5 – September 11
The support base of Lukashenka’s regime narrows as demands for more collegial decision-making grow
August 29 – September 4
The authorities foment fear in society as Lukashenka directs the creation of government-aligned “NGOs”
August 22 – August 28
Increased government intervention in the economy and dysfunction in public administration
August 15 – August 21
Direct control of the economy, increased censorship, and persecution of cultural dissidents
August 8 – August 14
The authorities seize resources from businesses and banks as well as purge some ideologists and siloviki
August 1 – August 7
Regional authorities mobilisation for harvest time; state investment in the economy returns
July 25 – July 31
Redistribution of income to the regime; coerced loyalty of the population
July 18 – July 24
The authorities repress civil society and trade unions while continuing with expropriations from businesses
July 11 – July 17
Derogation of responsibility from the state to citizens and businesses in the social sphere
July 4 – July 10
Polls suggest confidence in state institutions is rising, though security forces continue to compel obedience
June 27 – July 3
The authorities cut social guarantees as security forces stamp out dissent
June 20 – June 26
Lukashenka exerts direct control as imbalances in the state apparatus grow
June 13 – June 19
Unbalanced economic policy, purging disloyal investors and entrepreneurs
June 6 – June 12
Restrictions on competition in the medical sphere as authorities impose price controls
May 30 – June 5
The state expands surcharges to taxi drivers and traders as state budgets are redistributed to the security forces
May 23 – May 29
The state monopolises medical services; Beltelecom aims for total video surveillance
May 16 – May 22
The ruling class engages in liberal rhetoric while restructuring the private medical sector to favour regime allies
May 9 – May 15
Restrictions on medical businesses, tobacco, and investment; redistribution in favour of state business and loyalist entrepreneurs
May 2 – May 8
Repressions in the banking and public sectors; seizures in anticipation of sanctions effects
April 25 – May 1
Escalation of repression but forced concessions for business
April 18 – April 24
The siloviki strengthen their position in the leadership, the influence of the National Bank on economic policy falters
April 11 – April 17
The authorities are raising tax rates on the population and business as the security forces maintain repression
April 4 – April 10
Competition for resources intensifies amongst the ruling class as the state increases confiscations from dissidents
March 28 – April 3
The regime placates loyalists by avoiding direct participation in aggression; direct control of the economy intensifies
March 21 – March 27
The struggle for the minds of loyalists as contradictory measures to support the economy are announced
March 14 – March 20
The government reassures the population as security forces repress dissidents
March 7 – March 13
The regime widens divisions in society as state propaganda aligns with the Kremlin war agenda
February 28 – March 6
The referendum proceeds as loyalists are indoctrinated with the Kremlin agenda
February 21 – February 27
The referendum picks up pace. State media adjusts its approach, and government-sponsored NGOs (GoNGOs) take centre stage
February 14 – February 20
The regime does not feel the need to expand its support base; security forces continue to repress activism in society
February 7 – February 13
Public sector purges continue. Loyalists will ensure a required referendum turnout
January 31 – February 6
Lukashenka gradually regains his status as security forces continue large-scale purges before the referendum
January 17 – January 23
The regime musters loyalists ahead of the referendum as the state devolves some social guarantees to businesses
January 10 – January 16
State apparatus consolidates on the eve of the referendum as security forces expand repressions
December 20 – December 26