All trends

Society and political parties

The regime ramps up repression ahead of a spring offensive against Ukraine

January 16 – January 22

Democrats maintain pressure for sanctions against the regime as the Provisional Cabinet creates military formations in Ukraine

January 9 – January 15

2022: Political organisations and civil society: Anti-War Mobilization, Diplomatic Successes, and Declining Protests

December 26 – January 1

Civil Society focuses on repression as the audience for democratic forces contracts

December 12 – December 18

Democratic forces continue to isolate the regime, but criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet is intensifying

December 5 – December 11

Democratic forces are increasing international pressure on the regime as a new digital platform enters testing

November 28 – December 4

Tsikhanouskaya promotes her agenda in Canada as the Cabinet works on its media image

November 21 – November 27

Criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet is intensifying, and democratic forces’ influence at the international level is decreasing

November 14 – November 20

Democratic forces react to media scandals as civil society focuses on strengthening its international position

November 7 – November 13

Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet suffers reputational damage as democratic forces strengthen ties with Kyiv

October 31 – November 6

Civil society promotes de-Sovietization, as democratic forces retain support for change supporters

October 24 – October 30

Civil society promotes sanctions; volunteer fighters become politically active

October 17 – October 23

Democratic forces strengthen their international position, the Joint Transitional Cabinet consolidates supporters of the power scenario

October 10 – October 16

Civil society increases international pressure on the regime as Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet holds meetings with the leaders of France and Poland

October 3 – October 9

Democratic forces pursue an anti-mobilization agenda as the Cabinet consolidates political exiles around an ultimatum position

September 26 – October 2

Supporters of violent regime change consolidate support as Tsikhanouskaya promotes the civil society agenda at the UN

September 19 – September 25

Democrats promote isolation of the regime; civil society groups develop network services

September 12 – September 18

Democratic forces strengthen their positions at the international level, making independence a priority

September 5 – September 11

The Joint Cabinet revises the agenda of democratic forces, reducing support for pro-Ukrainian initiatives

August 29 – September 4

Civil society organisations lose influence in Europe, though positive expectations from the Joint Transition Cabinet remain

August 22 – August 28

Tensions within democratic forces subside as civil society develops services for supporters of change

August 15 – August 21

Tsikhanouskaya seeks alignment with partners as rhetoric against the regime intensifies

August 8 – August 14

Leadership disputes within democratic forces continue to grow as the influence of political organisations on the domestic agenda declines

August 1 – August 7

Criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s office continues; activists are demotivated due to prolonged confrontation

July 25 – July 31

Leadership struggles amongst democratic forces as the emphasis on forceful regime change increases

July 18 – July 24

Radicalization of the positions of supporters of change spurs reformatting in democratic forces

July 11 – July 17

Democrats revise their strategy as the mood of civil society polarises in response to repression

July 4 – July 10

International influence wavers, and the protest movement polarises

June 27 – July 3

Civil society develops infrastructure to help emigrants; democratic forces focus on the European choice

June 20 – June 26

Democratic forces gradually consolidate a pro-EU position; civil society focuses on counter-propaganda and advocating for political prisoners

June 13 – June 19

Civil society consolidates the pro-European audience as activists block state propaganda on the Internet

June 6 – June 12

Democrats maintain regime isolation. Centre-rightists renew cooperation with EU political bloc

May 30 – June 5

Tensions are growing in democratic forces; initiatives are testing the scope of activities in Belarus

May 23 – May 29

Democrats intensify sanctions rhetoric as Tsepkala unites critics of Tsikhanouskaya

May 16 – May 22

Democratic forces shape the international agenda as partisan protests against the regime continue

May 9 – May 15

Independent media and state propaganda reach audience parity. Ultimatum positions remain popular

May 2 – May 8

Democrats strengthen their position internationally; tensions in civil society continue to rise

April 25 – May 1