All trends
The regime ramps up repression ahead of a spring offensive against Ukraine
Democrats maintain pressure for sanctions against the regime as the Provisional Cabinet creates military formations in Ukraine
2022: Political organisations and civil society: Anti-War Mobilization, Diplomatic Successes, and Declining Protests
Civil Society focuses on repression as the audience for democratic forces contracts
Democratic forces continue to isolate the regime, but criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet is intensifying
Democratic forces are increasing international pressure on the regime as a new digital platform enters testing
Tsikhanouskaya promotes her agenda in Canada as the Cabinet works on its media image
Criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet is intensifying, and democratic forces’ influence at the international level is decreasing
Democratic forces react to media scandals as civil society focuses on strengthening its international position
Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet suffers reputational damage as democratic forces strengthen ties with Kyiv
Civil society promotes de-Sovietization, as democratic forces retain support for change supporters
Civil society promotes sanctions; volunteer fighters become politically active
Democratic forces strengthen their international position, the Joint Transitional Cabinet consolidates supporters of the power scenario
Civil society increases international pressure on the regime as Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet holds meetings with the leaders of France and Poland
Democratic forces pursue an anti-mobilization agenda as the Cabinet consolidates political exiles around an ultimatum position
Supporters of violent regime change consolidate support as Tsikhanouskaya promotes the civil society agenda at the UN
Democrats promote isolation of the regime; civil society groups develop network services
Democratic forces strengthen their positions at the international level, making independence a priority
The Joint Cabinet revises the agenda of democratic forces, reducing support for pro-Ukrainian initiatives
Civil society organisations lose influence in Europe, though positive expectations from the Joint Transition Cabinet remain
Tensions within democratic forces subside as civil society develops services for supporters of change
Tsikhanouskaya seeks alignment with partners as rhetoric against the regime intensifies
Leadership disputes within democratic forces continue to grow as the influence of political organisations on the domestic agenda declines
Criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s office continues; activists are demotivated due to prolonged confrontation
Leadership struggles amongst democratic forces as the emphasis on forceful regime change increases
Radicalization of the positions of supporters of change spurs reformatting in democratic forces
Democrats revise their strategy as the mood of civil society polarises in response to repression
International influence wavers, and the protest movement polarises
Civil society develops infrastructure to help emigrants; democratic forces focus on the European choice
Democratic forces gradually consolidate a pro-EU position; civil society focuses on counter-propaganda and advocating for political prisoners
Civil society consolidates the pro-European audience as activists block state propaganda on the Internet
Democrats maintain regime isolation. Centre-rightists renew cooperation with EU political bloc
Tensions are growing in democratic forces; initiatives are testing the scope of activities in Belarus
Democrats intensify sanctions rhetoric as Tsepkala unites critics of Tsikhanouskaya
Democratic forces shape the international agenda as partisan protests against the regime continue
Independent media and state propaganda reach audience parity. Ultimatum positions remain popular
Democrats strengthen their position internationally; tensions in civil society continue to rise
Society and political parties
The regime ramps up repression ahead of a spring offensive against Ukraine 
January 16 – January 22
Democrats maintain pressure for sanctions against the regime as the Provisional Cabinet creates military formations in Ukraine 
January 9 – January 15
2022: Political organisations and civil society: Anti-War Mobilization, Diplomatic Successes, and Declining Protests
December 26 – January 1
Civil Society focuses on repression as the audience for democratic forces contracts
December 12 – December 18
Democratic forces continue to isolate the regime, but criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet is intensifying
December 5 – December 11
Democratic forces are increasing international pressure on the regime as a new digital platform enters testing 
November 28 – December 4
Tsikhanouskaya promotes her agenda in Canada as the Cabinet works on its media image
November 21 – November 27
Criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet is intensifying, and democratic forces’ influence at the international level is decreasing
November 14 – November 20
Democratic forces react to media scandals as civil society focuses on strengthening its international position
November 7 – November 13
Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet suffers reputational damage as democratic forces strengthen ties with Kyiv
October 31 – November 6
Civil society promotes de-Sovietization, as democratic forces retain support for change supporters
October 24 – October 30
Civil society promotes sanctions; volunteer fighters become politically active
October 17 – October 23
Democratic forces strengthen their international position, the Joint Transitional Cabinet consolidates supporters of the power scenario
October 10 – October 16
Civil society increases international pressure on the regime as Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet holds meetings with the leaders of France and Poland
October 3 – October 9
Democratic forces pursue an anti-mobilization agenda as the Cabinet consolidates political exiles around an ultimatum position
September 26 – October 2
Supporters of violent regime change consolidate support as Tsikhanouskaya promotes the civil society agenda at the UN
September 19 – September 25
Democrats promote isolation of the regime; civil society groups develop network services
September 12 – September 18
Democratic forces strengthen their positions at the international level, making independence a priority
September 5 – September 11
The Joint Cabinet revises the agenda of democratic forces, reducing support for pro-Ukrainian initiatives
August 29 – September 4
Civil society organisations lose influence in Europe, though positive expectations from the Joint Transition Cabinet remain
August 22 – August 28
Tensions within democratic forces subside as civil society develops services for supporters of change
August 15 – August 21
Tsikhanouskaya seeks alignment with partners as rhetoric against the regime intensifies
August 8 – August 14
Leadership disputes within democratic forces continue to grow as the influence of political organisations on the domestic agenda declines
August 1 – August 7
Criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s office continues; activists are demotivated due to prolonged confrontation
July 25 – July 31
Leadership struggles amongst democratic forces as the emphasis on forceful regime change increases
July 18 – July 24
Radicalization of the positions of supporters of change spurs reformatting in democratic forces
July 11 – July 17
Democrats revise their strategy as the mood of civil society polarises in response to repression
July 4 – July 10
International influence wavers, and the protest movement polarises
June 27 – July 3
Civil society develops infrastructure to help emigrants; democratic forces focus on the European choice
June 20 – June 26
Democratic forces gradually consolidate a pro-EU position; civil society focuses on counter-propaganda and advocating for political prisoners
June 13 – June 19
Civil society consolidates the pro-European audience as activists block state propaganda on the Internet
June 6 – June 12
Democrats maintain regime isolation. Centre-rightists renew cooperation with EU political bloc
May 30 – June 5
Tensions are growing in democratic forces; initiatives are testing the scope of activities in Belarus
May 23 – May 29
Democrats intensify sanctions rhetoric as Tsepkala unites critics of Tsikhanouskaya
May 16 – May 22
Democratic forces shape the international agenda as partisan protests against the regime continue
May 9 – May 15
Independent media and state propaganda reach audience parity. Ultimatum positions remain popular
May 2 – May 8
Democrats strengthen their position internationally; tensions in civil society continue to rise
April 25 – May 1