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February 27 – March 5, 2023
Society and political parties

Democrats focus on internal disputes as the power bloc of the Tsikhanouskaya Cabinet strengthens its position

The situation has not changed

Tensions and mutual recriminations are escalating among democratic activists regarding long-term strategy, including the uncompromising stance towards the Lukashenka regime. Following the sabotage in Machulishchy, Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet and ex-security forces from BYPOL gain credibility among supporters of a decisive solution to the political crisis.

The leader of democratic Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, continues to build contacts with Western capitals and promote the general agenda of the Belarusian democrats. This week, March 6-9th, she will visit Great Britain to meet with Boris Johnson and other parliamentarians.

Robust positions prevail amongst democratic activists towards the Lukashenka regime in response to the continuation of brutal repression and incessant persecution of the leaders and activists of the protest movement.

The United Transitional Cabinet (UTC) has launched a campaign to block the Lukashenka regime from getting a representative elected to the UN Security Council.

Pavel Latushka, the representative of the Tsikhanouskaya Cabinet for the transition of power, announced his resignation from the reformed Coordination Council, the composition of which has expanded both numerically and in terms of the variety of views regarding democratic transformation strategy.

The credibility of the Tsikhanouskaya Cabinet among supporters of change and in relations with the Ukrainian leadership has improved following the attack by Belarusian partisans on a Russian A-50 AWACS military aircraft at Machulishchy military airfield. Ex-forces from BYPOL and Kalinoŭski’s regiment announce future cooperation.

The influence of independent media within Belarus has decreased in favour of Russian and official media. The decrease in the number of consumers of alternative media products results from large-scale repression of journalists and the elimination of registered mass media outside the control of the Lukashenka regime. According to an analysis by Chatham House, independent media trail state media in terms of audience and trust.

The protest movement remains significantly weakened due to the large-scale emigration of activists and unceasing repression of supporters of change, as evidenced by harsh prison terms for leaders and activists.

Tough sanctions and rhetoric against the Lukashenka regime will remain popular among democratic activists.

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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