November 14 – November 20, 2022
Society and political parties

Criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet is intensifying, and democratic forces’ influence at the international level is decreasing

The situation got worse

Criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet is growing in the wake of recent media scandals, including attempts to devolve influence amongst democratic forces. However, this does not yet amount to a challenge to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s leadership position. International attention towards Belarus is gradually decreasing, reducing the ability of democrats to promote their agenda in global media.

Democratic forces continue their campaign to delegitimise the Lukashenka regime, strengthen their international position, and maintain media interest in Belarus.

In a Politico article, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called herself the elected president of Belarus; however, some foreign publications are returning to name Lukashenka as the president of Belarus.

Following Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s trip to the Czech Republic and an agreement with the Czech Prime Minister, a representative office of Belarusian democratic forces will open in Prague.

The Joint Transitional Cabinet continues communicating with supporters and reports on its first hundred days.

Tsikhanouskaya’s office maintains current priorities and concentrates on the following:

  1. strengthening the power bloc and establishing military-political cooperation,
  2. strengthening international cooperation and isolation of the Lukashenka regime,
  3. preparation of personnel for a power transition

Confidence in Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet has waned. High hopes that the United Transitional Cabinet would effect rapid change in Belarus have not materialised, and media scandals within have undermined its credibility. Criticism has been levelled regarding transparency, the safety of activists, and personnel policy, such as the discovery of a GUBOPiK agent infiltrating the “Black Book of Belarus” project.

The influence of democratic forces in Belarusian domestic matters continues to weaken due to brutal repression, depoliticisation of the populace, concentration on radical change, and emigration of many activists.

Cyber partisans support the anti-war movement and claim to have hacked Russian Roskomnadzor networks responsible for censorship and blocking anti-war content.

The influence of democratic forces on the international agenda will continue to decrease so long as the Lukashenka regime does not draw additional attention to itself.

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of leading Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries to the most topical and relevant issues, including on behind the scenes processes ongoing in Belarus, in Russian and English.

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