All trends

Society and political parties

Democratic forces intensify dialogue with the West, Lukashenka scares it with the nuclear weapons and counts on its fatigue

October 2 – October 8

Tsikhanouskaya’s administration is solidifying the democratic movement, while volunteers are gaining more influence over the media landscape

September 25 – October 1

Tsikhanouskaya consolidates diplomatic contacts, but the opposition seems to overlook the upcoming elections

September 18 – September 24

Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet increases international pressure on the regime, and democratic forces rally around the idea of European integration

September 11 – September 17

Dems forces are consolidating political migration, fatigue is growing among supporters of the force scenario

September 4 – September 10

Sanction pressure weakened the regime, society’s fatigue from confrontation with the regime

August 14 – August 20

Democrats call for a boycott of the 2024 elections as the United Provisional Cabinet continues to isolate pro-government organisations

August 7 – August 13

The Coordinating Council increases its influence on the selection of United Transitional Cabinet personnel; tension in civil society is rising

July 31 – August 6

Forced regime change scenarios gain momentum as crowdfunding for political prisoners breaks records

July 24 – July 30

Democrats enlist the support of the European Parliament; Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition consolidates the diaspora

July 17 – July 23

Democratic forces in exile strengthen contacts with NATO countries, but the domestic protest movement is demotivated by repression

July 10 – July 16

Tsikhanouskaya strengthents cooperation with NATO as domestic support for democratic activists’ declines

July 3 – July 9

Civil Society Organisations are formalising relations with the EU as the democratic forces attempt to expand their audience

June 26 – July 2

Prigozhin’s Mutiny: Impact and Responses of Belarusian Democratic Forces

June 19 – June 25

Democratic forces concentrate on the anti-nuclear campaign, while Latushka rallies supporters of decisive regime change

June 12 – June 18

Internal recriminations damage the reputation of ByPOL as democratic organisations organise exiled activists

June 5 – June 11

Belarusian Democratic Movement Seeks Allies Abroad as Repression Persists

May 29 – June 4

Democratic Forces Persist in Sanctions and Delegitimization of Lukashenka Regime, Strengthen Presence in Interstate Institutions

May 22 – May 28

Democratic Forces Amplify International Pressure on Belarus Regime: Solidarity Campaign, Tribunals, and Cooperation with European Allies

May 15 – May 21

Democrats focus on transfer of power as pressure on political prisoners grows

May 8 – May 14

Tsikhanouskaya visits Dublin as pressure builds for an international tribunal regarding Lukashenka

May 1 – May 7

Civil society mobilises to support political prisoners as internal tensions rise within the democratic movement

April 24 – April 30

Democrats successfully negotiate with the Lithuanian authorities as the Cabinet mobilises the diaspora to press for sanctions

April 17 – April 23

Democratic forces consolidate political exiles; Tsikhanouskaya’s office fights Lithuanian restrictions on Belarusians

April 10 – April 16

Democratic forces gather evidence of regime crimes as political parties prepare for re-registration

April 3 – April 9

Democratic forces achieve success in the USA, Poland, and Lithuania, but the influence of civil society within Belarus continues to wane

March 27 – April 2

Strategic dialogue with the USA boosts democratic forces as political exiles organise actions on Freedom Day

March 20 – March 26

Democratic forces strengthen their influence in Washington and create the infrastructure of a digital state

March 13 – March 19

Democratic forces are consolidating strident regime critics, and the support for forceful change grows

March 6 – March 12

Democrats focus on internal disputes as the power bloc of the Tsikhanouskaya Cabinet strengthens its position

February 27 – March 5

Democratic forces increase international pressure on the regime as Tsikhanouskaya initiates action supporting Ukraine

February 20 – February 26

Democrats isolate the regime in international relations; the Coordination Council is trying to increase its influence in the democratic movement

February 13 – February 19

Restructuring Democratic Forces: Pazniak’s Security Council vs Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet

February 6 – February 12

Pazniak strengthens his influence on the democratic agenda as Tsikhanouskaya strengthens cooperation with the Council of Europe

January 30 – February 5

Unification around a common opposition agenda and demotivation of the Cabinet power bloc

January 23 – January 29

The regime ramps up repression ahead of a spring offensive against Ukraine

January 16 – January 22

Democrats maintain pressure for sanctions against the regime as the Provisional Cabinet creates military formations in Ukraine

January 9 – January 15