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July 17 – July 23, 2023
Society and political parties

Democrats enlist the support of the European Parliament; Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition consolidates the diaspora

The situation has gotten better

Democrats receive support from the European Parliament for the international prosecution of Lukashenka for war crimes and brutal repression of regime opponents. Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition is attempting to organise political exiles and Belarusian business abroad, though domestically, the influence of opposition forces is minimal due to long-term repression and a lack of independent media.

Democrats enlist the support of the European Parliament; Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition consolidates the diaspora

The European Parliament called on the International Criminal Court in The Hague to consider the possibility of issuing a warrant for Lukashenka’s arrest. Latushka’s team handed over evidence of the abduction of Ukrainian children and transfer to Belarusian territory, causing a nervous reaction from regime security forces and forcing Lukashenka’s diplomats to intensify contacts with international institutions. Tsikhanovskaya called for the Belarusian authorities to be brought to justice at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and the Italian Parliament.

The NAU, led by Latushka, who is also the Provisional Cabinet representative for the transition of power, is intensifying the campaign to delegitimise Lukashenka and prosecute him for war crimes and repression of opponents, announcing new evidence of crimes against Belarusian protesters and working in close partnership with Lithuanian colleagues.

Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s office announced the second “New Belarus” conference to unite the diaspora and improve contacts with civil society activists.

Under pressure from independent media and civil society, democrats continue to improve personnel policy and transparency. Tsikhanouskaya’s office, the United Transitional Cabinet and the National Anti-Crisis Office are accepting applications for vacancies.

Independent media audiences are shrinking due to continual repression, intimidation, and a campaign of social media purges, leading to long prison terms and fines for regime critics and dissenters.

International pressure forces the regime to make some concessions regarding the isolation of political prisoners. Relatives of the Babarykas were allowed to visit the Navopolatsk penal colony without actually meeting with Viktar Babaryka.

The Coordination Council increases its influence on Tsikhanouskaya Cabinet personnel policy and plans to hold hearings to agree on the candidacies of representatives of the Provisional Cabinet.

Cyber-guerrillas unmask the lies of Belarusian propaganda regarding the work of the commission for the return of emigrants.

The Association of Belarusian Business Abroad and the Association of Belarusians in America attempt to organise Belarusian businessmen worldwide.

The combined pressure from the Belarusian diaspora and international partners on Lukashenka’s regime will continue.

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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