The government increases support for the public sector; officials increase businesses’ social obligations
The authorities remain confident about their economic policy with the support of the public sector and strict price regulation. The government continues to increase the social responsibilities and tax burden of private businesses.
Lukashenka aims to increase his personal credibility and expand his support base, adjusting his rhetoric when addressing an anti-war audience, continuing to emphasise the benefits of strict price regulation, despite occasional shortages, and travelling to the regions to meet with local officials.
Regulatory changes for small businesses will significantly reduce the number of individual entrepreneurs and increase their tax burden.
Officials continue to delegate social responsibility from the state to private businesses, expecting large retail chains to sponsor free medical treatment for children.
Enforcement agencies supplement the budget with fines and seizures. Two Minsk residents may lose millions in connection with illegal cryptocurrency trading.
Increased economic support for the public sector preserves jobs and the state’s share of the economy. The government will increase its holdings in state-owned wood processing and cement companies.
The regime does not see emigration as a significant problem as it relieves potential tension in the labour market and reduces the likelihood of protests.
The ruling class will continue gradually redistributing social responsibility from the state to the private sector.
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Situation in Belarus