August 1 – August 7, 2022
Society and political parties

Leadership disputes within democratic forces continue to grow as the influence of political organisations on the domestic agenda declines

The situation got worse

Support for democratic organisations and the influence of civil society on the agenda within Belarus continues to decline due to activist fatigue and internecine recriminations. Part of the opposition is dissatisfied with the actions of the Office of the Democratic Leader of Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, and trying to seize leadership of the democratic movement.

Criticism and mutual accusations within the democratic movement persist as the social base and support among supporters of change for the approach of the broad coalition led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya shrinks.

Before the All-Belarus Conference, pressure on the office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is growing from partner organisations in the broad coalition. The National Anti-Crisis Management, headed by Pavel Latushka, insists on forming a transitional Cabinet (shadow government). On the other hand, Viktar Babaryka’s headquarters and the Coordination Council lack a flexible strategic plan.

Some opinion leaders and critics of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s office, such as Zianon Paźniak and Valery Tsepkala, refused to participate in the conference. They concentrate on consolidating their supporters and do not yet have widespread support among change advocates.

The opposition forum of the democratic forces led by the leader of “Our House”, Volha Karach and the Tsepkala family announced an action plan involving the formation of a government in exile.

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Meanwhile, one of the largest diasporas is mobilising political exiles in Warsaw for the March of Dignity and a concert supporting Kalinoŭski’s regiment.

Fundraising initiatives are experiencing a reduction in revenues. Civil society is trying to compensate for the decline in social welfare and help dissidents and political prisoners. Five fundraising initiatives have joined forces in helping the families of political prisoners with schoolchildren.

The influence of civil society and political organisations on the agenda within Belarus will continue to decline against the background of mutual recrimination in the struggle for the redistribution of resources.

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.

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