No signs of Belarus preparing for war

The possibility of Belarusian troops participating in the war against Ukraine will remain on the agenda while active hostilities persist; however, this remains a hypothetical possibility, not a certainty.

The military-political leadership of Ukraine regularly raises the possibility of direct Belarusian army involvement in aggression against the country. However, the intelligence services of Ukraine’s allies did not and do not see any preparations for war, and given high Ukrainian readiness, it would make no practical sense.

Belarus is not materially prepared for such an adventure as Minsk suddenly discovered the threat of food shortages. Lukashenka has previously stated that Belarus’ entry into the war would not change the strategic situation.

Raising the topic of possible Belarusian involvement is a deterrent from the Ukrainian perspective. The Belarusian regime is forced to openly deny such plans to external and internal audiences (siloviki and nomenklatura). The latter motivates numerous missions of high-ranking officials and propagandists to military units and regions of the country to lecture on the topic “aggressive West and peace-loving Minsk”.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was initially dictated by irrational ideological considerations. The possibility that Russia will pressure the Belarusian regime to enter the war cannot be completely ruled out, but for the moment, this is a hypothetical possibility, not a certainty.