The authorities are raising tax rates on the population and business as the security forces maintain repression

The authorities are tightening price regulation at the expense of businesses and the population to compensate for budget deficiencies. Inflation for 2022 will exceed planned levels as National Bank control weakens. The price of dissent and criticism of the authorities remains high.

The Government has approved a plan to support the economy. Lobbying by state sector interests has succeeded in securing financial support for state-owned companies as a component of import substitution. Previous financial support programs have usually ended in failure.

The State Control Committee tightens price regulation, fines retail chains, and expands controls to hygiene products. Officials demand that businesses reduce prices in line with the strengthening rouble.

The authorities are forced to raise the cost of public transport and the price of motor fuel to compensate for declining revenues due to sanctions.

The Government is returning to a conservative policy of administrative regulation and support for the public sector. Gold and foreign exchange reserves for February and March shrank by almost a billion dollars.

Security services continue to suppress journalistic activity, purge the media space, and intimidate supporters of change, deterring criticism of the head of state. The Lukashenka administration has detained a woman for sending a letter protesting against the war.

The Supreme Court has designated the “NEXTA”, “NEXTA Live” and “LUXTA” telegram channels as terrorist organisations. Repressive measures caused a decline in the number of subscribers to independent media even before hostilities in Ukraine.

The state cannot stem the exodus of IT companies with case by case agreements, and the rhetoric of the top leadership only exacerbates the situation. The regime does not understand the specifics of the work of programmers and attempts to threaten co-workers. State control over the IT sector intensifies as the Ministry of Communications is given authority over digital development.

Senior leaders are compelled to moderate their rhetoric due to strong anti-war sentiments in society.

Conflict with the security forces will intensify, and some businesses in the retail sector will be forced to close.