Kyiv is trying to keep Minsk on its toes

Statements by Ukrainian military officials regarding the role of Belarus in the Russian invasion aim to prevent the direct involvement of Minsk in the war.

Over the past week, Ukrainian military officials made several statements regarding “the role and place of Belarus in the Russian-Ukrainian war”:

• Citizens of Belarus are providing assistance to Ukraine, which is especially significant in light of the incident at the airfield in Ziabraŭka near Homiel immediately following the Ukrainian missile attack on the Russian air base on the west coast of occupied Crimea.
• Russia has allegedly recruited 13,000 Belarusian citizens with military service experience to participate in the war.

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No evidence was presented to substantiate these claims.

Ukraine is constructing defensive structures bordering Belarus. However, there are also statements to the effect that a large-scale invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory is unlikely at the moment. The internet information campaign maintains a negative attitude toward Belarus’ participation in the war against Ukraine among Belarusian servicemen.

Kyiv continues to keep the Belarusian regime and society in suspense with its information campaign to prevent the direct participation of Belarus in the war. Although this threat is still theoretical, Ukraine fears Russian intrigues may draw Minsk into the fight.

Ukrainian tactics to prevent Minsk from intervening in the war will continue to follow the pattern:

• statements of an accusatory nature against the regime to provoke a public reaction denying the existence of aggressive intentions against Ukraine;
• campaigning to maintain anti-war sentiments in Belarusian society;
• demonstrating the ability to defend in the event of military confrontation.

In general, these actions can be assessed as adequate.