Minsk’s back door diplomacy fails as the West intensifies criticism of the regime for conducting a hybrid war and orchestrating a humanitarian crisis

The situation has not changed

Minsk’s back door diplomacy fails as the West intensifies criticism of the regime for conducting a hybrid war and orchestrating a humanitarian crisis

The Belarusian crisis remains a concern to the West and international organizations of both global and regional scale. Western countries and the Belarusian regime continue to exchange accusations regarding hybrid aggression and an artificially generated humanitarian crisis on the Belarusian-European border. However, despite its belligerent rhetoric, Minsk is trying, so far unsuccessfully, to establish alternate channels of communication with Western capitals and set conditions for future bargaining and dialogue.

The attempt of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus Vladimir Makei to establish informal channels of communication with Western partners at the UN did not yield significant results. As previously predicted, negotiations with Poland, which are critical to de-escalation of Belarusian-Polish and Belarusian-European relations, were undermined by leaks publicising the initiative via Yuri Voskresensky.

Meanwhile, the emphasis of Minsk’s rhetorical broadsides at the UN has shifted from criticism of the West to the actions of the Belarusian opposition in exile. The leader of democratic Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called for support for the special mandate of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to study human rights violations in Belarus, bring to justice those responsible for violations. She further proposed that the Belarusian issue be added to the agenda of the UN Security Council and considered by the Third Committee of the General Assembly.

The West reacted swiftly. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopted a resolution on the establishment of a standing committee to monitor the human rights situation in Belarus, including the situation of migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers. The European Commission issued proposals to further restrict visas for Belarusian officials. The European Parliament plans to discuss the internal political situation in Belarus one year after the rigged presidential elections and the brutal suppression of protests, as well as the humanitarian crisis on the border of Belarus with the European Union and the hybrid wars of the Belarusian regime against the EU.

After failing at the UN, Minsk continued to search for intermediaries to establish back channels to the West, including the Sovereign Order of Malta, which has previously provided similar mediation services for the regime.

Meanwhile, the Lukashenka regime has set conditions for diplomatic bargaining and dialogue with the West. They are ready to cooperate with other countries on terms that respect the sovereignty and independence of the Belarusian authorities and people. Lukashenka also predicated any potential resignation as president on their being no pressure to that effect from Western countries.

As something of an olive branch in response to sanctions pressure, the possibility of holding a referendum on the abolition of the death penalty has been mooted once again.

Holding referendums on constitutional amendments and the death penalty will not lead to stabilization of relations with the West and may actually provoke a new round of sanctions.