Outcomes for 2015, Forecast for 2016
The situation has not changed
Outcomes for 2015: a deep recession and dim prospects for economic recovery
Forecast for 2016: conservation outguns innovation
Most important trends in 2015
- Conservation of the socio-economic model
- Increased demand for systemic transformations in the Belarusian society, especially in the economy
- People’s expectations of the state’s social protection lowered
- The state cut social guarantees to the population
- Some political elite acknowledged recession and the need for reforms
- The government divided into supporters of market reforms and antireform conservatives
- Reduced capacity for mobilisation for both, the authorities and the opposition
- Cautious neutrality in foreign policy
- Minsk earned a reputation of a peacekeeper
- Enhanced attention to national security
Main threats in 2016
- Tensions and protest moods in society will rise due to falling living standards and a cutback on social protection
- Deeper economic recession due to the lack of political will to reform the existing socio-economic model
- The Kremlin will step up pressure to deploy a Russian military air base in Belarus in exchange for financial aid and loans
- Amid dwindling state resources and fewer opportunities to distribute budgetary and export flow of funds, conflicts in nomenclature and state sidekick businesses will mount
- Minsk and Brussels will exhaust potential for reciprocal concessions in the process of Belarusian-European normalization
Most likely trends for 2016
- The state will imitate reforms in order to obtain external financing
- The likelihood of real economic reforms will depend on oil prices’ dynamics
- The state apparatus will step up the struggle for the redistribution of resources
- The opposition will reshape before the parliamentary elections
- Minsk will anchor its peacekeeping reputation and neutrality on the international arena
- Belarus will evade direct involvement in inter-state conflicts on the Russian side
- The authorities will abandon practices of supporting employment at any cost
- Industrial production capacity will continue to reduce
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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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