Belarus in Focus Information Office

Security issues

- The situation has deteriorated

- The situation has not changed

- The situation has improved

17 - 23.01.2022

Minsk-Kyiv: "Cold War" replaces "Cold Peace"

A political decision has been made to reinforce the capabilities of the Belarusian army towards Ukraine. The scale and form of this will...

10 - 16.01.2022

Minsk demonstrates its inability to competently evaluate and respond to external challenges

The recent CSTO peacekeeping operation in Kazakhstan demonstrated that the Belarusian regime cannot adequately assess and respond to...

01 - 31.12.2021

Complete failure

In 2021 all the negative trends of 2020 were amplified.

2 – Polish police on the border with Belarus. Image from Naša Niva's Telegram channel

20 - 26.12.2021

Minsk awaits the West's response to the Kremlin's ultimatum

It seems that the Belarusian regime is concerned about the results of the ultimatum presented by Moscow to NATO and the United States.

This file comes from the website of the President of the Russian Federation and is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. In short: you are free to distribute and modify the file as long as you attribute www.kremlin.ru.

13 - 19.12.2021

Minsk tries to get off the Russian escalation train

The Belarusian regime is making cautious attempts to return to the favourite (and previously financially profitable) tactic of "trading"...

06 - 12.12.2021

A new wave of repression before the constitutional referendum

De facto, the regime launched yet another wave of repression in connection with the upcoming constitutional referendum.

29 - 05.12.2021

Minsk abandons its longstanding positioning as "a regional security donor"

Most recent Lukashenka’s statements have marked the end of the Belarusian foreign policy strategy pivoting around the concept of Belarus...

Украінска-беларуская мяжа. Фота dpsu.gov.ua

22 - 28.11.2021

"Pre-war" rhetoric as a tool of Minsk's pressure on the EU

Having fallen into a dead end of the migration blackmail of the EU, the Belarusian regime continues to try to aggravate the situation,...

15 - 21.11.2021

The West has begun to speak a language that Minsk understands

The Belarusian regime has long accused the West of exerting force. Now Minsk faces reality and is unable to find a workable response.

08 - 14.11.2021

Kremlin has its own agenda regarding confrontation between Belarusian regime and West

The public statements and actions of the Kremlin are superficially supportive of Minsk in its confrontation with the West, but Russia has...

Image from https://t.me/radiosvaboda/40169

Belarus-Russia relations

- The situation has deteriorated

- The situation has not changed

- The situation has improved

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17 - 23.01.2022

Second Plan of "Allied Resolve"

There has been a reset of Russia’s relations with Belarus, and there have been no significant developments since the events in Kazakhstan,...

10 - 16.01.2022

"Security Donor": in a different region and a different context

The protests and state of emergency in Kazakhstan, followed by the intervention of the CSTO, temporarily deprived the Belarusian-Russian...

01 - 31.12.2021

Game of Presidents: season 2

In 2021 Belarus oriented itself firmly towards Russia.

5 – An informal meeting of Vladimir Putin and Aliaksandr Lukashenka. Image by kremlin.ru

20 - 26.12.2021

A new stage of the relationship? Let's start with donation and safety

The main agenda is formed by the Russian side, sending threats to NATO and Western countries and presenting Belarus as a passive party to...

Борис Грызлов. Источник фото: er.ru (Рамиль Ситдиков/РИА Новости).

13 - 19.12.2021

“To the internal resources and internal reserves”, as well as one large external reserve

Minsk is working on attracting new loans from Russia against the backdrop of sanctions that have cut off the economy from key sources of...

Беларуские рубли и доллары США. Минск, Беларусь. 27 апреля 2021 года. Фото: АВ / Белсат

06 - 12.12.2021

Russia-Belarus: under pressure

In response to Western sanctions, the Belarusian authorities announced the introduction of a

29 - 05.12.2021

Escalation as a way to catch two birds with one stone

Minsk is seeking to increase tension in relations with the West so that it would lead to an aggravation of relations between the West and...

ZU-23-2 firing. Автор: Serge Serebro, Vitebsk Popular News. Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported

22 - 28.11.2021

Integration without "dialogue". Lots of sensitive issues

The Belarusian economic authorities anticipate an increase in Russian oil imports in 2021.

15 - 21.11.2021

The Kremlin favours dialogue with the external and internal West

Vladimir Putin called on Alexander Lukashenka to start a dialogue with the opposition and cooperate with the European Union to resolve the...

08 - 14.11.2021

Nuts & Bolts of foreign policy

Minsk seeks to draw Russia into a broader confrontation with the West, though so far, without much success.

Belarus-West relations

- The situation has deteriorated

- The situation has not changed

- The situation has improved

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17 - 23.01.2022

The regime loses agency in the eyes of the West despite of trying to do the opposite

Amid escalating tensions over Ukraine, the Belarusian regime is trying to demonstrate its loyalty and usefulness to the Kremlin by...

10 - 16.01.2022

A constitutional referendum in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions?

While Western countries are distracted by the crisis in Kazakhstan and tensions with Russia over Ukraine, the Belarusian regime hopes for a...

01 - 31.01.2021

The Belarusian crisis has become a global problem

2021 was characterised by the growing confrontation in relations between Belarus and Western countries.

4 – Meeting of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya with US president Joe Biden. Source: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Telegram channel

20 - 26.12.2021

The Belarusian regime threatens the West with diplomatic and transit conflicts

The Belarusian regime is trying to find new points of pressure and attract the attention of the EU with threats of diplomatic and transit...

13 - 19.12.2021

The regime threatens Afghan refugees, nuclear weapons and the suspension of gas transit

The Belarusian regime is preparing for a new round of escalation in relations with the West, threatening a wide arsenal of tools for...

06 - 12.12.2021

Belarusian regime has introduced counter-sanctions against the West

The sanctions war between Belarus and Western countries has reached a new milestone, prompting the Belarusian authorities to introduce...

29 - 05.12.2021

Lukashenka regime is trading in sovereignty and the Russian threat

The EU, in coordination with other Western allies, introduced new sanctions against the Lukashenka regime and immediately started to...

22 - 28.11.2021

Despite the de-escalation of the migration crisis, the West is increasing sanctions pressure

The de-escalation of the migration crisis in the second half of November did not lead to a revision of the plans of Western countries to...

15 - 21.11.2021

The EU opens technical dialogue with the Belarusian regime but does not recognise its legitimacy

The Belarusian regime was able to use the escalation of the migration crisis on the Belarusian-EU to prompt indirect negotiations regarding...

Александр Лукашенко и Ангела Меркель / Архивное фото AP

08 - 14.11.2021

Belarusian regime responds by escalating to the preparation of the 5th package of EU sanctions

Relative calm in Belarusian-Western relations has been overturned by an abrupt escalation of the migration crisis on the Polish-Belarusian...

License: Creative Commons 3 - CC BY-SA 3.0

The ruling elite

- The situation has deteriorated

- The situation has not changed

- The situation has improved

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17 - 23.01.2022

Lukashenka gradually regains his status

Lukashenka is consolidating personal loyalty amongst his supporters while security forces foster apathy among supporters of change and...

10 - 16.01.2022

The regime musters loyalists ahead of the referendum

The regime is mobilising state institutions to consolidate loyalty to Lukashenka in preparation for the February referendum.

01 - 31.12.2021

Immersed in defensiveness

In 2021 the ruling class failed to restore public confidence in state institutions (although they barely tried).

1 – Painting presented by the Lukashenka’s security service to Lukashenka. Image by Pul Pervogo Telegram channel

20 - 26.12.2021

State apparatus consolidates on the eve of the referendum as security forces expand repressions

Lukashenka increases division and tension in society to galvanise the siloviki on the eve of the referendum.

This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license. Author: Bestalex

13 - 19.12.2021

As the regime represses private businesses, the security forces enforce political inertia in society

The authorities are increasing expropriations and repression against private businesses to punish disloyalty to the Lukashenka regime.

06 - 12.12.2021

Security forces continue purges as the regime aims to depoliticize society before the referendum

The Lukashenka regime no longer aims to expand its social base through buying loyalty and increasing prosperity, it rather stakes on

29 - 05.12.2021

Purges in anticipation of the referendum and questionable solutions to address the budget deficit

The state (security forces) is concentrating resources on persecuting dissidents and disseminating alternative information.

22 - 28.11.2021

Belarusian government resumes support for public sector, Lukashenka has doubts about referendum

The National Bank fails to restrain the government from supporting unprofitable state-owned companies. Lukashenka is not so sure a...

15 - 21.11.2021

Lukashenka defines the agenda for the referendum as purges of opponents and the media continue

The regime has no intention of engaging in dialogue with the opposition and refuses to bribe the electorate in the face of falling GDP.

08 - 14.11.2021

The regime continues to flout the law as suppression of civil society and media activities continues

The actions of the security forces orchestrating the transit of migrants via Belarusian territory in contravention of Belarusian law causes...

Фота Leonid Scheglov/BelTA/Handout via REUTERS

Society and political parties

- The situation has deteriorated

- The situation has not changed

- The situation has improved

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17 - 23.01.2022

Democratic forces agree to participate in the constitutional referendum

A broad coalition of democratic forces manages to enlist the support of the majority of supporters to implement a strategy of the ballot...

Фото: телеграм-канал Светланы Тихановской

10 - 16.01.2022

Pressure on Yara delivers results; diasporas support a unified position on the referendum

The influence of civil society and political organisations on the Belarusian political agenda is somewhat diminished by the transfer of...

01 - 31.12.2021

Relocation, structural strengthening in exile and development of online services

In 2021, democratic forces made successful diplomatic contacts with Western capitals, but mainly due to the scandalous actions of the...

3 – Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's New Year address. Source: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s YouTube channel

20 - 26.12.2021

Democratic forces promote a unified approach to the referendum

The political emigres successfully promote the sanctions agenda and affect the restriction of cooperation between Western corporations and...

Акция беларуской диаспоры возле офиса Mentholatum / twitter.com

13 - 19.12.2021

Diaspora successes in international politics, polarization in society is increasing

Political emigration supports the attention of Western capitals to the situation in Belarus, but polarization in society is growing due to...

06 - 12.12.2021

The protest movement is subsiding as the anti-sanction discussion is intensifying

The influence of the Democratic Forces on the domestic political agenda is somewhat decreasing against the backdrop of the subsiding...

29 - 05.12.2021

Democratic forces aim to establish contact with members of election commissions

Democratic forces in exile are promoting a unified strategy for a referendum and attempt to establish contacts with possible members of...

22 - 28.11.2021

A unified action plan for a referendum by democratic forces in exile unlikely to be supported by parties and initiatives inside Belarus

Democratic organizations advance the civil society agenda in European capitals, which is largely due to the migration crisis.

15 - 21.11.2021

Democratic forces formulate common position on referendum as Civil Society develops online services

Against the backdrop of Western capitals strong reaction to the migration crisis on the Belarusian-EU border, democratic forces endeavour...

08 - 14.11.2021

Democratic forces support the topic of new elections on the agenda

Adapting to continuing repressive conditions, civil society organisations are developing online services to maintain engagement with...

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