Privatization: a strategic fight for terms and conditions

Head of the State Property Committee of Belarus Georgy Kuznetsov announced at a press-conference that Belarus will sell to Gazprom the remaining 50% of the stake in JSC “Beltransgaz” for USD 2.5 billion before the end of 2011.

According to Kuznetsov, Belarus has imposed a lot of additional conditions regarding prices, tariffs and other issues that hampered negotiations. However in the autumn the parties will agree on all terms and the transaction will be completed.

Russian JSC “MTS” offers to pay USD 400-500 million for the state-owned shares of the Belarusian subsidiary, said Kuznetsov, noting that Belarus would like to receive USD 1 billion for the asset. According to the State Property Committee, it has been tasked to assess Belarusian assets’ maximum value in order to negotiate it in the future to reach the acceptable compromise.

Comment

It is likely that Belarus will have to cede to “Gazprom” on the issue of privatization of “Beltransgaz”, creating a precedent that would anticipate further concessions to Russian investors in the course of imminent privatization.

Belarus has to sell “Beltransgaz”, it is the only asset that has been prepared for the privatization, and is able to enrich the gold and currency reserves with USD 2.5 billion.

Russia understands this. It proposed to postpone talks until September. On 19 July in an interview with BelaPAN Russian Ambassador to Belarus Alexander Surikov said, Russia was considering the purchase of “Beltransgaz” “largely as a remedy for Belarus because of the rising gas prices that took place during the transition to mutually beneficial market relations”.

Russia was considering the purchase of “Beltransgaz” “largely as a remedy for Belarus because of the rising gas prices that took place during the transition to mutually beneficial market relations”.

The majority of Russian investors are not satisfied with the prices for Belarusian assets. They believe the market assessment made by Belarus is overly exaggerated and it is impossible to reach an acceptable compromise. Consequently, Russia will work to change this approach, while supporting the Belarusian economy at the cost of sale of the “Beltransgaz”