The regime sends a signal to opponents: expropriation for critics, belarusianization for the loyal

The regime aims to silence the voices of those criticizing Lukashenka in exile through financial pressure and marginalization. The ruling class demotivates democratic forces and independent media with symbolic expropriations of property and in-absentia court sentences. The establishment plans to expand its circle of sympathizers in the national-democratic segment of society. These measures are intended to disintegrate the broad coalition of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and increase tensions within the democratic movement.

The ruling class continues to seize the property of opponents. The Investigative Committee has launched a large-scale criminal case and confiscated the assets of 45 critics of Lukashenka’s policies. For example, the authorities imposed restrictions on the parental home of the head of the “Belsat” TV channel, Aliaksei Dzikavitski, and auctioned off office space belonging to Eduard Babaryka. Additionally, the KGB and OMON raided the apartment of prominent lawyer Maria Kolesava-Hudzilina.

The regime is demotivating activists to prevent them from cooperating with political organizations in Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition. The Supreme Court reviewed appeals in the criminal case against Tsikhanouskaya’s “analysts” and upheld the original sentences. Simultaneously, a trial in absentia is underway against economist Pavel Daneika. The democratic forces are already experiencing a shortage of personnel, which weakens their potential.

The ruling class is considering declaring 2025 the Year of the Belarusian Language. The Belarusian establishment is demonstrating a desire to integrate the interests of the national-democratic segment of society into state policy.

During the most acute phase of the 2020 protests, the dictator was unable to mobilize GoNGOs to support him. Instead, Lukashenka relied on “Russian world” activists and pro-Russian propagandists. As a result of a personnel shortage in the state apparatus, supporters of integration with Russia gained significant influence. In turn, “Russian world” activists acquired substantial leverage over the official agenda.

However, the rhetoric of pro-Russian activists periodically conflicts with the interests of the ruling class. Consequently, the authorities have expanded repressions against some representatives and media resources of the “Russian world” that criticize the regime. For instance, the Telegram channel “For the Union State of Belarus and Russia” was declared “extremist.”

On the other hand, rhetoric about “Belarusianization” allows the regime to depoliticize some activists who oppose the regime. These measures could weaken the position of the democratic movement and increase criticism of Tsikhanouskaya.

Thus, the ruling class intensifies repressions against independent media and democratic forces as the presidential campaign develops.