by
January 23 – January 29, 2023
The ruling elite

The regime is progressively more isolated from the people as property seizures from the “disloyal” increase

The situation got worse

The Lukashenka regime discriminates against large sections of the population by depriving critics of political and civil rights. Representation in state institutions and the creation of political parties and NGOs are prohibited. The ruling class anticipates protracted external isolation and lack of investment, increasing the scope for nationalising foreign business.

The Belarusian authorities aim to appoint local managers to run foreign-owned companies.

Price regulation is extended to the construction industry and will likely be followed by raids, inspections, criminal prosecutions, and expropriations.

The ruling clique finally confirmed an agreement with Lukashenka on the redistribution of powers, adopted by last year’s referendum. Deputies approved the draft law regarding the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly at the second reading. The adopted provisions perpetuate the separation of the regime from society and the narrow focus on the interests of regime supporters. The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly will become the new home for representatives of state institutions and other regime functionaries exiled to work in GoNGOs.

The authorities are preparing for the re-registration of political parties by liquidating all opposition organisations. There will be no registered political organisations representing the interests of those opposed to Lukashenka. At some future date, the party projects of Yury Vaskrasensky or Hanna Kanapatskaya will probably be revived to reduce societal tension.

Given that the labour market is deteriorating and the population is steadily ageing, the security forces aim to create a “commission for the return of fugitives” to process returning dissidents who may be economically valuable.

Changes in regulations for individual entrepreneurs likely mean tax increases and surcharges, worsening their conditions for activity. The ruling class views small and medium-sized businesses as disloyal and imposes various restrictive measures on them.

The ruling class will continue large-scale repression and force those suspected of disloyalty to depoliticise while seizing their assets.

 

 

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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