The Election Nears Its Final Stage: Everything Is Going According to Plan

The registered presidential candidates emphasize Lukashenka’s appeal. The dictator must appear as a wise and experienced leader against the backdrop of the eccentric Haydukevich, Stalinist Syrankou, mediocre Khizhnyak, and marginal Kanapatskaya. Ideologues continue imposing their format of interactions with civil society and boosting the public prominence of defectors from democratic forces. Tensions are rising between the Central Election Commission (CEC) and the activists of the “Russian World.”

Communist Syrankou proposes restoring monuments to Joseph Stalin, intensifying purges in the public sector, strengthening censorship and ideological control, and expanding property confiscations from dissenters. The leader of the regime-loyal “liberals,” Haydukevich, attempts to adopt the provocative style of the legendary LDPR leader Zhirinovsky. Former MP and pro-regime oppositionist Kanapatskaya criticizes Russia and Tsikhanouskaya but avoids targeting Lukashenka. Meanwhile, the head of the RPTS, Khizhnyak, does not stand out in any particular way, which makes his contribution to the pool of candidates significant.

Propagandist Vaskresenski announced the names of five political prisoners released through pardons. Blogger Pratasevich published a photo on his Telegram channel of a meeting with Viktar Babaryka. Simultaneously, security forces aim to dismantle the infrastructure of solidarity and support for political prisoners. For instance, the “Pismo.by” service for correspondence with inmates has been declared illegal. These measures fuel tensions within democratic forces, with increased criticism of Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition as part of an effort to erode the united agenda of democratic movements.

Pro-Russian activists seek to influence the state’s language policy. Their interests continue to clash with the ruling class’s monopoly on determining the state’s course in the national and cultural spheres. Nevertheless, former leader of the Belarusian Communist Party and current CEC head Ihar Karpenka can hardly be considered a supporter of the Belarusian language. Even so, information figure Bondarava criticizes her former party colleague for neglecting the Russian language in election ballots.

The ruling class is trying to consolidate loyalists through additional guarantees and benefits. A special procedure is planned for initiating criminal cases against delegates of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly.

Ideologues and security forces are intensifying their campaign to intimidate dissenters ahead of the vote. In addition to administrative arrests, security officers conduct preventive conversations with activists and organize ideological events at state enterprises. The regime’s enforcers aim to demotivate opponents from participating in the election out of fear of unpredictable consequences.

The ruling class is testing additional measures to isolate the domestic information space during the election. Overnight, tests of internet access restrictions for ordinary users are being conducted in Belarus. The authorities want to avoid a repeat of the 2020 experience, when the economy suffered significant losses due to Lukashenka’s emergency internet shutdown in response to protests.

Thus, Lukashenka is likely to continue releasing political prisoners after the election campaign and attempting to dismantle the unity of democratic forces to strengthen his position in negotiations with Western capitals.