State Propaganda: Focus on Dividing Democratic Forces

Propagandists aim to deepen the split within the democratic movement ahead of the 2025 presidential campaign. Security forces are intensifying efforts to dismantle solidarity and the infrastructure supporting repressed opponents of the government. The ruling class shows no intention of easing widespread repression against dissenters.

The ruling class has achieved certain — favorable to them — outcomes by releasing small groups of political prisoners. This has, in particular, increased discussions and tensions within the democratic movement and civil society. Criticism of the sanctions rhetoric and the positions of the United Transitional Cabinet has grown louder. Propaganda seeks to widen the divide within the democratic movement, bringing former political prisoners, Voskresensky and Protasevich, back into the public sphere. Additionally, Lukashenko has announced plans to continue releasing prisoners detained for political reasons.

Propagandists are testing the positioning of former NEXTA editor Roman Protasevich as a mediator between the ruling class and democratic activists. In 2020, the regime attempted to counter the Coordination Council by creating the Round Table of Democratic Forces (RTDF), led by former political prisoner Voskresensky. This initiative attracted a small number of grassroots democratic activists, but leaders of even moderate political organizations distanced themselves from Voskresensky. Gradually, the RTDF’s activity was frozen as repression increased. Most likely, the ruling class is testing the possibility of creating another controlled center to divert activists away from Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition.

In turn, Voskresensky’s narratives are aimed at deepening divisions within the democratic forces — particularly by amplifying conflicting assessments of sanction policies.

Meanwhile, regime enforcers continue a large-scale repression campaign ahead of the 2025 presidential campaign. These actions are intended to demotivate and depoliticize those who support change. The enforcers seek to dismantle the infrastructure of civil society that supports the repressed.

The large-scale campaign targeting consumers of independent media products continues unabated. Human rights activists are regularly adding new names to the list of those imprisoned for political reasons.

Thus, the ruling class is attempting to deepen the split within the democratic forces, undermining their international standing. Security forces are working to destroy the remaining support networks and the connection between political exiles and activists inside the country.