Start of Lukashenka’s Election Campaign

The ruling class is gradually unfolding a campaign in support of Lukashenka. As the active phase of the election approaches, the scale of political repression is increasing. The regime continues its efforts to divide democratic forces and demotivate supporters of change.

Lukashenka has begun a pre-election tour across the regions. During his visit to the Pinsk district, he tested the image of himself as a peacekeeper and a guarantor of security against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.

In this context, drone strikes on Belarusian territory have become a sensitive issue for the authorities, as such incidents negatively affect Lukashenka’s ratings. In response, security forces suppress public resonance with harsh repression. At the same time, the dictator is personally forced to respond to emergencies and reassure people.

After heavy pressure on the state sector, the regime expanded its propaganda efforts to the private sector. Members of parliament have decided to hold ideological events for employees of private enterprises.

The ruling class is intensifying repression against dissenters. During the period of pardons, more people in Belarus have been recognized as political prisoners than those who have been released.

The regime also plans large-scale preventive detentions during the elections. Security forces have been practicing similar arrests of democratic movement activists since the presidential campaigns of 2006 and 2010. However, in 2025, it is planned to extend these preventive repressions to a much larger circle of opponents.

Representatives of the regime are adhering to contradictory rhetoric in their communication with different audiences. Recently, Lukashenka confirmed his intention to continue pardoning political prisoners. At the same time, propagandist Vaskrasenski told human rights defender Sudalenka that the process of releasing prisoners convicted on political grounds had been halted.

According to the propagandist, the “key” to releasing political prisoners lies with Poland’s Foreign Minister Sikorski. It should be noted that Vaskrasenski’s words are primarily aimed at a Belarusian audience, as Minsk maintains official diplomatic communication channels with Warsaw. Meanwhile, state propaganda narratives aim to escalate tensions and division within the democratic movement. Specifically, ideologues strive to shift responsibility for repression and political prisoners onto democratic forces. At the same time, the regime hopes to amplify the voices of those groups within the democratic movement that advocate for a review of the sanctions rhetoric and pressure on Lukashenka and his allies. This is because the ruling class is concerned about the achievements of democratic forces on the international stage, such as Lithuania’s submission of documents to the International Criminal Court in The Hague regarding the regime’s crimes against humanity.

It should be acknowledged that security forces have made certain progress in demotivating the democratic movement. Olga Garbunova’s team has decided not to hold the solidarity marathon for political prisoners in 2024.

Thus, the ruling class continues its preparations for the conduct of Lukashenka’s elections in the first quarter of 2025.