Propagandists prepare public opinion for another wave of political prisoner releases

Belarus saw a record increase in real wages, up 15.4% compared to the same period in 2023. This is largely due to labor emigration, which means there is understaffing. This results in higher wages for the remaining workers. At the same time, the economy is slowing, so demand for workforce is declining.

The regime continues to take measures to prevent small and medium enterprises from developing. In Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s view, these sections of the population are particularly disloyal to the ruling class. In the most “dissident” city, Minsk, the authorities have not registered new individual entrepreneurs for four years. Conversely, the government has plans for further restrictions on sole proprietors, self-employed workers, and artisans. This resulted in sole proprietorships beginning to decline.

The ruling class is more beholden to big business and foreign investment, whose loyalty and control are much easier to secure. State officials and the state sector of the economy remain one of the main pillars of Lukashenka’s regime.

Meanwhile, the government is relaxing price controls and planning to scrap the strict regulatory system introduced in 2022. This is linked to the lack of political capital for Lukashenka to boost his ratings. The government’s actions indeed had an impact on income growth. However, as wages go up, inflation picks up. Interfering with pricing mechanisms has had an impact on the redistribution process in the domestic retail sector. Some big chains (like Vitalur supermarkets) had to shut down.

At the same time, the state seems to lack the resources to maintain the old paternalistic relationship with society, despite the demand from some loyalists for a personality cult. The ruling class is working to shape public opinion in a way that makes it seem like cutting social benefits for families is a good idea. Belarusians allegedly have a positive attitude toward mandatory “parental donations” for school needs, according to pro-government sociologists.

Simultaneously, those engaged in propaganda are attempting to influence the views of Lukashenka’s staunch supporters regarding the second wave of releases of political prisoners. Last week, Lukashenka pardoned another 30 convicted for ” protest-related crimes”. Meanwhile, the regime’s security forces keep using harsh repression to demotivate opponents.

Word is that Lukashenka is planning to release another group of political prisoners before the Day of National Unity (September 17). This latest batch might be bigger than the previous ones.