Propaganda Ahead of Election Day: Lukashenka Is Immortal, Merciful, and Invincible

The government is creating favorable economic conditions for Lukashenka’s presidential campaign by increasing the population’s welfare. The ruling class is allocating significant funds and resources to the dictator’s campaign in an attempt to broaden his base of sympathizers following the unsuccessful experience of 2020. Security forces are intensifying efforts to demotivate regime opponents ahead of January 26.

According to independent sociologists, the ruling class has shaped favorable public opinion ahead of the Belarusian presidential election. In the pro-government segment, 61% intend to participate in the January 26 vote, whereas only 11% of the protest-oriented audience are willing to cast their votes.

Unlike in 2020, the ruling class has preemptively focused significant attention and allocated substantial resources to Lukashenka’s campaign. Regime political technologists are striving to expand electoral support for the dictator through online influencers.

Propaganda and state media continue to adapt Lukashenka’s image to suit the needs of different audiences. The dictator has once again tried to refute rumors about his poor health for his loyalist supporters. For the neutral audience anticipating political liberalization, reports highlight the latest pardoning of political prisoners. State sociologists have announced a rise in Lukashenka’s electoral ratings.

In the public sphere, there are almost no signs of campaigning by other registered candidates. Their role is to emphasize the statistical insignificance of alternatives to the dictator. The presence of unfamiliar faces on the ballot is unlikely to attract voters. Moreover, Lukashenka’s opponents remain frustrated by prolonged and large-scale repressions, while democratic forces have offered protest-oriented supporters the option of voting “against all.”

Dissenters identified in protest databases are being forced to sign “official warnings.” These documents carry no legal consequences but serve as a tool in the regime’s large-scale political indoctrination campaign.

The ruling class fosters loyalist behavior among certain population groups by improving their welfare. The regime has achieved this by redistributing resources in favor of the beneficiaries of Lukashenka’s social state. As a result, the income gap is widening. It is worth noting that the main beneficiaries of the dictator’s policies are security forces, high-ranking officials, and state sector leadership.

At the same time, corruption rents are increasing due to diminished financial transparency and the destruction of independent media. The role of the state apparatus and security forces as “regulators” of the economic sphere is also growing.

Despite this, the government has ensured economic growth, with GDP increasing by 4%. Along with a growing labor shortage, this has contributed to an overall rise in wages. Consequently, economic optimism has spread within society.

Lukashenka is particularly concerned about rising unemployment. The dictator fears a repeat of the Soviet Union’s collapse, which featured a strong protest movement and high unemployment. He continues to fight persistently against “freeloaders” despite the unpopularity of coercive and punitive measures.

Meanwhile, the government is increasingly worried about labor shortages in specific sectors, such as agriculture. Officials hope to mitigate the workforce deficit (and its economic impact) by attracting labor migrants and deploying propaganda measures. Simultaneously, the state sector continues to experience purges aimed at fostering loyalist behavior among employees. This significantly contributes to the emigration of skilled professionals abroad.

Thus, the ruling class is set to launch a large-scale mobilization campaign for early voting, targeting state sector employees and student youth.