Preventive Repression of the Middle Class

Lukashenka continues preventive measures to maintain personal power and prevent the transformation of his personalist regime. The ruling class is reducing the share of small and medium-sized businesses in the economy. The regime’s guards target diasporas and repress relatives of those who criticize the dictator.

The government adheres to the approach of stimulating the economy through domestic demand. Officials plan to increase the amount of concessional loans issued for the purchase of domestic goods.

The measures of the ruling class positively reflect on economic indicators: retail turnover is growing. In turn, the level of official inflation is acceptable for the population: 102.7% for January – April 2024. However, the National Bank struggles to curb the government’s maneuvers to heat up the economy.

The problem with a shortage of skilled workers is worsening. The labor market has recorded another anti-record — the number of vacancies has exceeded 150,000. However, this situation is not perceived by Lukashenka as a significant threat to personal governance. Wages are increasing against the backdrop of economic growth.

Lukashenka signals controllers to soften pressure and punitive expropriations in state enterprises.

The focus of the regime’s guards is directed towards the elections to the Coordination Council (CC). Cyber guards of the regime attack the voting website. Law enforcement agencies expand measures to demotivate potential participants in the CC elections. Searches took place in the apartments of candidates for the Coordination Council and their relatives in Belarus.

The ruling class shows no intention of easing repression against dissenters. The draft amnesty law by July 3 does not foresee the release of those convicted for “extremism” and “terrorism.” Regime guards use euphemisms “extremists” and “terrorists” for political opponents.

The contribution of small and medium-sized companies to the economy last year decreased along with the reduction in the number of individual entrepreneurs. The regime strictly limits this professional group. The government plans to reduce the list of activities that entrepreneurs can engage in. At the same time, officials plan to reduce the number of victims of innovations to 20,000 people instead of the initial plans of 40,000.

The ruling class is increasing pressure on private medical centers. The Ministry of Health has limited the profitability of a number of paid services. The healthcare system is short of more than 9,000 doctors and nurses. Officials aim to increase budgetary revenues through expropriations in private business and redirecting specialists to the public sector. At the same time, there are plans to increase the loyalty of medical professionals (especially after their active participation in peaceful protests in 2020).

Thus, the ruling class plans to gradually increase the share of the public sector in the economy.