Plans for the 2025 Elections: Lukashenka Seeks to Regain Popular Support

The ruling class aims to restore a sense of broad public support for Lukashenka through the electoral campaign. The final protocols, which will showcase the results for the single candidate from the “constructive opposition,” Kanapatskaya, are intended to highlight the marginalization of the regime’s opponents. Other candidates from systemic parties serve to dilute protest voting.

Two candidates with a security background withdrew from the election: Bobrykau, representing the “Belarusian Officers’ Union,” and former Interior Ministry press secretary Chamadanava, from the Belarusian Women’s Union. Their nomination caused confusion among their colleagues in the security bloc.

Bobrykau and Chamadanava targeted the same audience—security forces, a key pillar of Lukashenka’s support. However, this group did not appreciate the subtle calculations of the regime’s political strategists. These withdrawn candidates were nominated by public associations to create an illusion of choice and emphasize the regime’s main candidate.

The ruling class is mobilizing the population to demonstrate loyalty. A large-scale signature-gathering campaign is being conducted among state sector employees to nominate Lukashenka. Within the first seven days, 700,000 signatures were collected in support of the dictator. The Lukashenka regime increasingly exhibits mobilization characteristics, with heightened control over the population’s political loyalty.

Security forces continue sweeping raids to detain dissenters who have been in their databases over the past four years. Repression is intensifying: at least 1,213 people have been convicted in administrative cases since September.

The ruling class is strengthening the positions of defectors from democratic forces, such as former NEXTA editor Pratasevich and propagandist Vaskrasenski. Ideologists hope to weaken the support and unity of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition.

The regime continues efforts to shape public opinion about Lukashenka’s high level of support. Propagandists are setting public expectations for Lukashenka’s approval ratings to reach 90% or more. The regime-affiliated analytical center EcooM claims trust in Lukashenka stands at 80.4%.

It is likely that the Central Election Commission will report final results showing Lukashenka’s support in the comfortable range of 80–85%. The ruling class considers these figures acceptable for European observers.