Plan B: Stalin-approved election

Lukashenko released yet another group of political prisoners. However, it is anticipated that the number of prisoners convicted on political grounds will increase due to new detentions. The regime’s security forces are engaged in an ongoing crackdown on dissidents. Riot police have been carrying out pipeline clearance operations in various regions of the country for several years. The regime’s special forces recently raided activists engaged in 2020 protests in Homel region, Stolin, and Hlybokaye.

The propagandists have concocted another story about a plot to kill Lukashenka and a number of his senior officials. The pumping up of hysteria about the “bloodthirsty plans” of the regime’s opponents is intended to prevent a potential split in the ruling class. Such propaganda ploys serve to consolidate the high-ranking officials around the dictator. The monopolization of the media space and the difficulties Belarusians have in accessing independent sources of information are conducive to the propagandists’ game plans.

The Ministry of Information continues to purge the information space of independent media. Inside the country, access is restricted to 5,000 internet resources that publish information critical of Lukashenka’s regime. A relentless persecution of the distribution and consumption of independent media products is organized by security forces and the regime’s masterminds.

Lukashenka remains concerned about the process of voter approval for another presidential term and overcoming international isolation. The politician anticipates conducting a campaign that will rely on enforcement mechanisms and exclude observers and the public from the process. Concurrently, the autocrat is preoccupied with reaffirming his legitimacy on the global stage and safeguarding his interests in the event of a shift in the situation in Ukraine. It seems probable that the ruling class is currently discussing the possibility of inviting an observer mission from the OSCE. Ihar Karpenka, the head of the Central Election Commission, has announced plans to introduce new legislative innovations following the election.

Lidziya Yarmoshyna, former head of the Central Election Commission, has recommended that elections be held following “Stalin’s recommendations for best election seasons,” in March 2025. Therefore, the ruling class considers the first quarter of 2025 as the preferred period for holding the election.