National Unity Before Elections: The Paper Tiger of Support

The ruling class is channeling significant mobilization resources into campaigning for Lukashenka. The dictator aims to boost his personal ratings among the beneficiaries of state redistribution—public sector workers and pensioners. Political purges intensify during the electoral campaign to demotivate dissenters.

Election organizers have reported a record number of signatures in support of the dictator. For instance, according to the “official” version, over 50% of voters in the Mahileu region supported Lukashenka’s nomination. Officials aim to create the impression, both for society and for the dictator himself, of a revival of widespread popular support.

The ruling class seeks to avoid politicizing society with election-related topics. Campaigns in support of Lukashenka are organized as a series of background propaganda initiatives. The largest of these is the propaganda campaign “Unity Marathon,” funded by the state budget. Trade unions are launching flash mobs to demonstrate the unity of workers and the government. Other propaganda events are being held to instill the notion of Lukashenka’s presidency as inevitable.

Four additional token candidates have submitted documents for registration as presidential candidates. These partners of Lukashenka in the elections are meant to emphasize the marginality of the opposition and reinforce the image of popular unity around the dictator.

The government is striving to maintain positive economic expectations among the population during the election campaign. However, economic growth is slowing, and problems are accumulating.

At the same time, the authorities have decided to return to purchasing the loyalty of beneficiaries of state regulation by improving their well-being. Unlike in 2020, the government is increasing salaries for public sector workers and payments to pensioners.

Meanwhile, security forces are demotivating the protest-oriented segment of society with harsh repression. Political persecution has intensified and expanded since the beginning of the election campaign. In September, 176 political administrative cases were recorded; in October, 246; and in November, 377. Repressions are occurring across the country, including in small towns. The number of political prisoners remains consistently high, despite their occasional amnesty in small groups. For every released prisoner, courts continue to incarcerate new opponents of Lukashenka. Security forces regularly expand the extremist registry by including dissenters.

Propagandists are continuing to undermine trust in democratic forces. They are working to disintegrate the unified agenda of civil society. Propagandists have announced the dismantling of a solidarity network and the arrest of its participants. Additionally, the repressive machine seeks to exploit amnestied political prisoners to pressure human rights defenders.

Thus, the election organizers are mobilizing the electorate for early voting.