Lukashenka’s Regime: Navigating Elections Ahead of a Crisis

The ruling class is adapting its financial, propaganda, and enforcement tools to address potential challenges during the presidential campaign. Economic problems are accumulating, but the Belarusian leadership hopes to maintain positive public sentiment through the election period.

Last week, the currency and financial system faced another wave of stress due to the devaluation of the Russian ruble. However, the authorities have so far managed to keep the situation under control.

The National Bank is stabilizing the financial market, likely through currency interventions. Such “injections into the economy” to support the ruble and minimize devaluation expectations have occurred multiple times before.

Propagandists are attempting to calm financial panic among consumers of state media products, particularly pensioners. For instance, propagandist Azaronak visited a currency exchange and demonstratively burned a dollar bill.

Meanwhile, law enforcement may launch a public campaign of high-profile arrests targeting bloggers and online streamers. This could happen if public unrest over currency market turbulence intensifies.

At the same time, the ruling class is fostering positive expectations among the population and preparing society to accept the election results. Average wages increased in October, even though the Belarusian economy continues to slow down.

Simultaneously, officials are expanding their influence over resource redistribution in the private sector. This is evident in the passenger transportation market, private housing management, and even in the appointment of leaders in private firms. Local officials are gaining additional powers over the allocation of financial resources in homeowners’ associations. For instance, funds for major repairs can only be allocated with local executive committees’ approval. Officials in housing and communal services have leveraged Lukashenka’s concerns about the political loyalty of homeowners’ associations. The dictator has focused particularly on “protest-prone” apartment blocks in Minsk that stood out during the events of 2020. Following the suppression of the protest movement, officials introduced a series of discriminatory restrictions and tightened state regulation over private housing management.

However, this intervention is unlikely to have significant political consequences for the regime. For example, state interference in the transportation sector has led to higher prices and public dissatisfaction, but the ruling class appears unconcerned about the decline in service quality or the unfavorable business climate.

The primary goal remains maintaining political stability and restoring Lukashenka’s legitimacy. A large-scale campaign of coercion to accept Lukashenka’s leadership continues in the public sector.

In conclusion, the ruling class has accumulated sufficient resources to mitigate the impact of potential economic crises on Lukashenka’s ratings.