Elections 2025: Lukashenko’s Populism and Preventive Repressions

Lukashenka is striving to raise trust ratings ahead of the 2025 presidential campaign. Regime enforcers maintain their influence in regulating the economy and redistributing the consumer market. The security forces continue to demotivate society with severe repressions.

Lukashenka is compelled to respond to discussions about his health condition from “allied” media. Russian state media significantly influence the audience of the Belarusian politician. For this reason, he has to refute rumors about his deteriorating well-being during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana. Messages are directed at officials to prevent discussions about a potential transfer of power to a successor. Lukashenka plans to remain in office after 2025 and has already started his presidential campaign.

The dictator is trying to adjust his personal image and raise support ratings. Although belated, Lukashenka is capitalizing on populist measures following the aftermath of the hurricane in the Gomel region: the politician flew to the Mazyr district for an inspection. The dictator attempted to direct public dissatisfaction with the inconsistent reaction of his administration towards the officials. It is possible that Lukashenka has become more attentive to public reactions to high-profile events following the return of Natalia Petkevich to the Presidential Administration.

The quality of governance in the state apparatus is deteriorating due to the breakdown of feedback with the population. As independent sociologists note, the ruling class prefers forceful methods to resolve social tensions. Regime enforcers aim to prevent new protests through large-scale detentions of activists known since 2020. The 2025 presidential campaign is planned in an atmosphere of repression and public intimidation.

Meanwhile, the liquidation of public organizations continues, despite having already undergone a massive purge in 2022-2023. The courts are combating dissent: the number of “extremist” materials and formations, as well as “extremists” among regime opponents, is increasing. The security forces are demonstratively persecuting protesters against falsifications and violence in 2020. Expropriations of property from regime opponents continue.

The security forces retain significant influence in the ruling class ahead of the 2025 elections. In the special commission for selecting companies importing alcoholic products, besides officials, tax officers, security officers from the KGB, Ministry of Internal Affairs, and Customs Committee are included. Officials declare the preservation of the “Island of Cleanliness and Taste” brand, albeit with a change in ownership. This major Belarusian retailer faced serious financial problems after the arrest of its owners in 2022 and punitive expropriations totaling USD 7 million.

Consequently, the security forces receive financial bonuses in the form of additional budget redistributions. The State Customs Committee will be allocated BYN 2.24 million from the budget.

Thus, the ruling class continues to maintain a high level of repression to demotivate dissenters and prevent post-election protests.