Early Elections for Lukashenka: It Never Happened Before — and Here It Is Again

With statements about the transfer of power, Lukashenka is trying to avoid early politicization of society ahead of the 2025 elections. Most likely, the ruling class has chosen one of the most probable scenarios to hold the presidential campaign early — in February 2025. The autocrat is counting on favorable conditions for re-election: prolonged holidays are unlikely to contribute to the activation of society, and winter cold is unlikely to encourage active protests from opponents.

Lukashenka periodically makes statements about changing power. This will happen someday, but most likely due to natural causes or as a result of pressure and the forced removal of the dictator from power. Since the early 2000s, the autocrat has regularly and most often right before the elections claimed that he was tired of holding the office of president. However, in every subsequent election, the politician extended his term of office. Even against the will of society and despite large-scale protests, the autocrat clung to the presidential chair.

Additionally, within the ruling class, a tendency is forming that contradicts the power transition — a personality cult of Lukashenka is being established. Over the past three years, the politician has restored full power after the political crisis of 2020. This happened contrary to the expectations of the state apparatus, as the ruling class was hoping for a gradual transition of power, but these hopes were not fulfilled.

Most likely, the dictator, with statements about a change in power, is trying to prevent the politicization of society. Lukashenka’s rhetoric aims not to irritate the population in advance. Some people are tired of the autocrat’s long tenure in power, but they remain in a depoliticized state. Additionally, this rhetoric disorients the regime’s opponents, who are delaying the development of strategies for behavior during the election campaign.

According to BYPOL statements, the ruling class plans to hold elections in February 2025. As early as the beginning of the summer, Lukashenka strengthened his anti-corruption rhetoric. The autocrat often starts fighting corruption ahead of elections to boost his personal ratings.

On the eve of the elections, Lukashenka initiates the release of political prisoners. The ruling class is trying to create favorable conditions for activating contacts with Western countries and renewing legitimacy.

Presidential elections in Belarus have often been held early. The dates were shifted to create favorable conditions for Lukashenka to conduct the campaign. For example, in 2006, the elections took place on March 19 — four months earlier than the legal date. It is entirely possible that this time Lukashenka has chosen a scenario where the elections are moved forward by five months. The ruling class already has successful experience conducting two electoral campaigns in February — the referendum (February 27, 2022) and the elections to the National Assembly and local councils (February 25, 2024).

Thus, one of the most probable scenarios for the presidential campaign is its conduct in the first quarter of 2025.