Deferred Transition of the Lukashenka Family

Lukashenka is gradually reintroducing his youngest son into the public sphere following the restoration of his personal political standing. The dictator is freezing the transformation of the regime toward collective governance. He uses personnel rotations to prevent the consolidation of nomenklatura groups and mitigate potential threats from their side.

The hiatus in the public activity of Mikalai Lukashenka, the dictator’s youngest son, was prompted by the events of 2020, when the regime faced the threat of collapse due to mass public unrest. However, last week, Mikalai reappeared in the media space, giving an interview to state-controlled outlets. Along with other family members, Mikalai is participating in the large-scale electoral campaign “Unity Marathon” to support his father as a presidential candidate. This signals a return to the strategy of deferred transition within the Lukashenka family. However, the elder Lukashenka’s age and health condition pose challenges to the realization of the family’s plan for a power transition.

Since 2022, the dictator has solidified his position, consolidating the security forces and state apparatus around him. As a result, Lukashenka has frozen any plans for power transition—discussions of collective governance have completely disappeared, even as a long-term prospect. Meanwhile, the trend of building a cult of personality around the dictator has intensified. In contrast, Mikalai Lukashenka enjoys a more favorable reception from a broader audience compared to his father’s traditional supporters.

The ruling class continues to employ repression to enforce loyalty among the population, pushing regime opponents toward emigration. In recent months, widespread crackdowns have affected various corners of Belarus. Security forces have escalated psychological and informational operations against dissenters. The Prosecutor General’s Office has reminded the public of the diverse punishments for political activism.

At the same time, the regime has yet to finalize its strategy for the presidential campaign, including the number of registered candidates and the inclusion of the “opposition” candidate Hanna Kanapatskaya on the ballot.

Lukashenka is implementing personnel reshuffles, placing loyal individuals in state positions. Periodic rotations of officials enable the dictator to prevent the emergence of powerful nomenklatura factions that could threaten his leadership.

Officials are occasionally removed from their posts during anti-corruption purges. In many cases, Lukashenka precedes these changes with sharp public criticism of the targeted agencies.

The politician recently criticized the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus. The megaproject “BelBiograd” by the Academy was terminated, and its leadership ended up on trial. This development is tied to the redistribution of funds and cuts in state financing. In recent years, significant resources have been redirected to the development of security forces.