Counter-Evalution: Expropriation of Property and nationalization of the Economy

The Lukashenka regime is expanding the absenteeist sentiments among supporters of change. The ruling class strives to demotivate activists and disrupt the elections to the Coordination Council. The regime’s guards are extending the practice of expropriating property and assets to new groups of political opponents in exile. The government maintains positive public expectations of economic growth through investments in the state sector and combating “speculators” — entrepreneurs.

The ruling class maintains economic optimism by demonstrating support for state-owned companies and wage growth. GDP growth from January to April at 5.1% exceeded officials’ expectations (3.8%). The EBRD has improved its GDP forecasts for Belarus for 2024.

Economic achievements (against the backdrop of sanctions) strengthen the ruling class in their belief in the correctness of the chosen course. This course is based on supporting state-owned companies and price regulation, cooperation with Russia, purging the state sector of disloyal workers, and narrowing opportunities for small business.

The Ministry of Economy has published for public discussion a list of activities that individual entrepreneurs will be allowed to engage in. As a result, some individual entrepreneurs will be forced to close. Meanwhile, no new individual entrepreneurs have been registered in Minsk since August 2021.

It is worth noting that the significant increase in salaries for public sector employees and state sector workers is largely facilitated by a staffing shortage.

The National Bank periodically expresses concerns and warnings about excessive stimulation of economic growth.

Within the country, the regime’s guards continue repressions against dissenters and expand them through the persecution of relatives of emigrant critics of Lukashenka.

The ruling class attempts to demotivate supporters of change from participating in the elections for the new composition of the Coordination Council (CC). Low turnout could be used as an argument for the non-representativeness of this institution of democratic forces and also stimulate centrifugal tendencies among Lukashenka’s opponents. The regime, among other things, hopes to thereby reduce the influence of democratic forces on the international agenda and the relations of Western capitals with official Minsk in the future.

The regime’s guards have declared all electoral lists in the CC as “extremist formations.” To demotivate the diaspora, the Investigative Committee added 104 surnames to the list of suspects in the “Belarusians Abroad” case for celebrating Freedom Day — and threatens property arrests.

Thus, the ruling class will continue repressions against political emigration in order to reduce the influence of democratic forces on the international agenda regarding official Minsk.