Clashes Among Lukashenka Supporters: Propagandists vs. “Russian World” Activists

Among Lukashenka’s sympathizers, contradictions and public accusations are intensifying. The reason is the attempts by some supporters of the “Russian World” to define state policy in the areas of historical memory, culture, and personnel policy. However, pro-Russian activists face resistance from official propagandists and ideologists who are not interested in weakening their influence.

During the authoritarian reaction following the events of 2020, “Russian World” supporters gained significant political weight and influence on state policy in Belarus. This particularly affected areas such as historical memory, culture, and education. This happened because pro-Russian activists supported Lukashenka during the 2020 political crisis, filling the vacuum of public support for the politician. Accordingly, such behavior strengthened their positions and connections with the regime’s protectors. Today, pro-Russian views are quite popular among security forces, especially the GUBOPiK, which assumed the role of a political police force after 2020.

At the same time, during the period of widespread repression, the positions of supporters of a pro-European development vector for the country and dialogue with civil society weakened within the ruling class. Simultaneously, the bureaucratic weight of those advocating for maintaining close ties with Russia increased. Interestingly, this group of officials and ideologists is loyal to Russia but also adheres to independence-oriented views. They are not interested in weakening their influence on state policy and, accordingly, the distribution of budget resources.

Counter-revolutionaries in the form of “Russian World” activists (such as Bondarava, Zhygimont, Mirsalimava) go beyond fighting Lukashenka’s opponents. These activists seek to influence the personnel policy of the state apparatus and state-affiliated businesses. Ideologists and propagandists harshly curb their attempts to cross defined boundaries and begin their own game, including in communication with Russian partners.

Propagandists are pushing for additional restrictions on the internet. According to Minister of Information Markov, Belarus and Russia are losing to their “enemies” in the online space. Ideologists are counting on substantial budget inflows into their projects. Moreover, Belarusian media propagandists plan to engage in “import substitution” of YouTube, Telegram, TikTok, and Instagram not only with Belarusian budget funds but rather at the expense of Russian investments.

Ideologists aim to create comfortable conditions and restore a monopoly in the information space. After the destruction of independent media within the country, the Ministry of Information hopes to isolate society from access to global social networks and media.

Thus, the ideologists’ efforts to create a “sovereign internet” are unlikely to succeed. However, additional restrictions can be expected ahead of the 2025 presidential campaign.