2025 Special Election Operation. Lukashenka confuses opponents

Lukashenka has recently engaged in an impersonal discussion with his political opponents regarding the date of the upcoming elections. The politician has tried to refute the veracity of the BelPol (the Association of Former Belarusian Law Enforcement Agents) leak regarding February 23, 2025 as the most likely election day. The dictator also had to explain to his supporters why he released a few dozen political prisoners and why he met the demands of civil society and Western politicians.

In the run-up to the presidential election, Lukashenka will hold the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly. To consolidate his supporters, the dictator held this large forum in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2010, during each election campaign. The tradition changed during the 2015 presidential election. The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly was held in 2016, after the election. The same thing happened in 2021 following the 2020 election.

After the 2015 presidential campaign, the authoritarian regime appeared to be at its strongest. That included a policy of marginalizing opponents, a politically alienated population, and a state apparatus consolidated around Lukashenka. After the mass protests of 2020, the autocrat began to pay more attention to communication with society and decided to return to holding the “propaganda forum” before the elections.

Meanwhile, the ruling class continues to confiscate the property of its exiled opponents. In this way, the security forces hope to demotivate critics of the regime who have left the country because of the repression. Moreover, expropriation is an additional source of income for the public purse. Property confiscated from political prisoners is usually sold by the authorities.

Lukashenka has set the priorities for his vertical in the run-up to the active phase of the “special election operation”. The politician hopes to win the electorate’s loyalty by raising wages and keeping unemployment low. With additional bonuses, the autocrat also increases the devotion of the security forces.

The state is committed to investing in large-scale projects to foster the growth of industrial giants. This enables Lukashenka to maintain state dominance in the economy while also keeping a high employment rate.

Many previous projects to modernize state-owned enterprises have failed to achieve their stated goals and are generating losses. However, the government continues to inject public funds to stimulate economic growth.

Officials expect to build a new pulp and paper mill using Chinese technology. The Directorate of Confectionery Factories expects increased state investment in phasing out imported sweets.

No final decision on the date of the election has been made by the autocrat so far. However, it seems likely that the election will be held in the first quarter of 2025.