Unification around a common opposition agenda and demotivation of the Cabinet power bloc

The Joint Transitional Cabinet and volunteers in Ukraine will be somewhat demotivated by the ambiguous position of Kyiv towards Belarusian democrats. In response to Lukashenka’s attempts to divide the democratic movement by proposing individual negotiations with political exiles regarding returning to Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is attempting to consolidate factions around a single agenda.

The stance of the leadership of Ukraine towards the national-democratic forces of Belarus increasingly disheartens supporters of change.

The representative of defence and national security of the Joint Transitional Cabinet, Valer Sakhashchyk, optimistically announced the formation of a Belarusian volunteer unit in the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the end of winter. However, the weakening alignment between Belarusian democrats and Ukraine due to the contradictory position of Kyiv will decrease the motivation of volunteers and narrow the support base of the anti-war movement inside Belarus.

Democrats continue to work with international institutions, foreign media and politicians to maintain attention to Belarus. The leader of democratic Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, confirmed the appointment of the special rapporteur to the Parliamentary Asociation of the Council of Europe on the problems of Belarusians in emigration and participated in the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, with a panel entirely devoted to Belarus.

Democrats continue defending political emigrants’ interests and establishing cooperation with the Polish authorities. Members of Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet held meetings with the leadership of the Ministries of Education and Science, Finance and Foreign Affairs.

A German deputy made a speech in the Bundestag in support of Belarusians and Belarus.

Democratic forces unite around a common position on the regime’s attempts to start negotiations with political emigrants on the terms of their return to Belarus. Lukashenka attempts to undermine solidarity by bypassing democratic organisations and directly appealing to political exiles.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya strives to consolidate regime opponents, strengthen the negotiating positions of supporters of change, and prevent the consensus demands against the Lukashenka regime from fragmenting.

Tensions and disagreements may arise within the democratic movement following the regime’s proposals to undermine the common agenda by, for example, starting a trade of political prisoners.