Tsikhanouskaya-2025: The Connecting Element in the Architecture of Democratic Forces

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet is increasing media attention and activist engagement with its supporters’ forum, “Belarusians Deserve Better”, through the initiative “Passport of New Belarus”. At the same time, criticism of the approach taken by the United Transitional Cabinet (UTC) regarding the isolation of Lukashenka regime is growing as the election date approaches. Nevertheless, Tsikhanouskaya maintains her leadership in shaping the democratic forces’ unified agenda: she remains the connecting element in the coalition’s architecture.

Democratic forces are trying to draw attention to the “Belarusians Deserve Better” forum and mobilize their supporters. Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet is advancing the initiative to create the “Passport of New Belarus” and has announced the start of applications for its issuance during the event on January 26. Notably, this event is planned to coincide with the day of voting in Lukashenka’s election. However, the project has faced criticism due to a conceptual shift initiated by its creator, former UTC deputy head Valery Kavaleuski. The passport now holds more of a symbolic value, as it is not recognized as a travel document by other countries.

Initially intended as a substitute for an official document, the “Passport of New Belarus” attracted political refugees who faced discrimination from Lukashenka regime. However, over time, activists abroad have adapted to the restrictions and lost faith in the initiative’s effectiveness. As a result, democratic forces must seek new mechanisms to protect their supporters’ interests when communicating with Western capitals.

Tensions and mutual criticism are increasing within the democratic movement. Opposition veteran Zianon Pazniak has publicly condemned the approaches of Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet toward isolating Lukashenka regime. The politician aims to strengthen the influence of those advocating de-escalation in rhetoric and to adjust the democratic forces’ agenda. Pazniak seeks to weaken the position of Pavel Latushka, the most authoritative proponent of pressure on the regime, within Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet. However, the veteran politician avoids direct criticism of Tsikhanouskaya as the leader of democratic Belarus.

Supporters of de-escalation in relations with Lukashenka regime have been unable to form a stable alliance and, consequently, to undermine Tsikhanouskaya’s leadership. Opposition to the mainstream coalition remains situational and marked by significant contradictions, which hinder unification. For instance, Pazniak views the teams of former presidential candidate Babaryka and former Coordination Council chairman Yahorau with suspicion. Meanwhile, these political groups, which have representation in the Council, have also failed to establish stable partnerships.

Thus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya retains key positions in shaping the democratic movement’s unified agenda after the presidential campaign concludes.