Pressure on the regime vs. de-escalation: debate in pro-democracy circles

The United Transitional Cabinet (UTC) is adopting a more unified approach to its strategy regarding the Lukashenka regime. UTC maintains its position on the continued application of sanctions and international isolation of the official Minsk government, a stance that aligns with the vision of Pavel Latushka, acting as the deputy head of the Cabinet.

For her part, Volha Harbunova left the post of social affairs representative over disagreement with the mainstream strategy of putting pressure on the regime. Tsikhanouskaya nominated Volha Zazulinskaya, head of the Country for Life Foundation, for the vacant post.

Recently, criticism of the UTC’s tough stance towards Lukashenka’s regime has grown within the democratic movement. Tensions rose after Lukashenka began releasing political prisoners. The number of pardoned individuals has reached 120 people. Cabinet opponents interpret the ruling class’s actions as negotiation signals. UTC critics hope to force the pro-democracy politicians to reconsider their relationship with the regime and soften their rhetoric.

In turn, the Tsikhanouskaya Cabinet’s position in communicating with Western capitals could be undermined by giving Lukashenka international legitimacy. The regime has succeeded in crushing the protest movement inside the country and limiting the ability of democratic forces to influence the domestic Belarusian agenda.

However, against the background of the partial isolation of the Lukashenka regime, the cabinet has achieved significant diplomatic successes. Tsikhanouskaya soon embarks on an official visit to the United States and plans to attend the UN General Assembly. The pro-democracy leader’s primary focus is on matters pertinent to the exiled part of the movement, including the regularisation of Belarusians’ stay abroad, advocacy for repressed activists, and securing support for independent media.

The pro-democracy politicians held discussions with the Swedish authorities regarding the legalization of Belarusian refugees. This followed the decisive expulsion of a political immigrant and his subsequent arrest in Belarus.

Belarusian civil society and independent media are engaged in efforts to draw attention to the issue of political prisoners in Belarus, including through engagement with Russian opposition politicians. For their part, the Russians talk about the importance of freeing Belarusian dissidents when they meet Western politicians.

The European Parliament has adopted a further resolution concerning the deteriorating situation of political prisoners in Belarus. The European Parliament has reiterated its support for maintaining pressure on the Lukashenka regime, as advocated by Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet.

In light of the evolving situation, the democratic circles are now turning their attention to next year’s presidential campaign, despite growing internal tensions.