Political exiles promote sanctions, political organizations try to motivate activists
Political exiles retain influence at the international level and upon the agenda of relations between Western capitals and Minsk, but this is largely due to the migrant crisis and the scandalous actions of Belarusian security forces against dissidents. Political organizations try to maintain contact with their sympathizers but are extremely restricted due to the repressive policy of the authorities.
The conference in Nuremberg initiated by P. Latushka’s NAU irritates the Belarusian leadership by discussing the initiation of criminal cases based on principles of universal jurisdiction.
Political exiles support the sanctions agenda against the backdrop of the migrant crisis on the Belarusian borders with Poland and Lithuania. The EU may adopt the fifth package of sanctions against the Lukashenka regime in November. The German government has proposed expanding sanctions against Belarus to combat illegal migration.
Exiles are trying to draw public attention to alternative proposals for constitutional changes. The “Bank of Ideas” holds a marathon of submissions and discusses amendments to the Basic Law. However, the mobilization of society is declining due to severe repression and the emigration of activists. Interest in alternative proposals is also low, due to disillusionment regarding hopes of the imminent overthrow of the Lukashenka regime.
As a result of the harsh and extra-legal actions of the security forces to eliminate the protest movement, frustration with peaceful forms of protest increases, especially in the face of a constant escalation of penalties for dissent on the part of the regime.
Political organizations try to keep the commitment of sympathizers and carry out some in-country activities to inspire activists. However, they try to avoid public communication because of fears of attracting attention from the security forces.
The visible manifestations of protest are, therefore, fading but in the absence of an outlet for protest sentiments, an explosive reaction is possible due to accumulated discontent with decisions of the authorities.