New Challenges to Tsikhanouskaya’s Leadership

The Coordination Council is enhancing its engagement with European partners and increasing its influence on the Council of Europe’s agenda regarding Belarus. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya maintains her leadership position, shaping both a unified political approach for democratic forces and strategies to protect the interests of civil society. However, attempts to disintegrate Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition are intensifying as Lukashenka’s elections approach.

For the first time, a delegation from the Coordination Council will participate in a session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. Democratic forces maintain a unified vision and agenda in their communication with European parliamentarians: non-recognition of Lukashenka’s elections, holding the dictator accountable, and securing the release of political prisoners.

Democratic forces are successfully consulting with the Polish establishment on advancing the interests of Belarusian civil society in the European Union. Belarus will be among Poland’s priorities during its EU presidency starting January 1, 2025. This has triggered a nervous reaction from Lukashenka’s diplomatic corps.

Some activists are striving to draw additional public attention to the release of political prisoners. However, their criticism and narratives often seem more like attempts to undermine the unity of democratic forces and weaken Tsikhanouskaya’s coalition. It is worth noting that supporting the repressed and securing the release of political prisoners remain among the Cabinet’s top priorities under Tsikhanouskaya’s leadership.

The regime’s propagandists aim to disintegrate the democratic forces led by Tsikhanouskaya. At the same time, the level of repression in Belarus is unrelated to the activities of democratic forces. Political organizations in exile have refrained from mobilization efforts inside the country during Lukashenka’s elections. This decision is driven by attempts to shield activists and supporters of change from the dictator’s repression.

Meanwhile, regime diplomats maintain communication channels with Western capitals to present their positions, including the potential exchange of political prisoners for sanctions relief. However, this track currently appears to have little potential, as the sanctions were imposed in response to the regime’s violations of international norms.

Within the democratic forces, tensions are rising over the reduction and redistribution of resources. While this debate is unlikely to significantly erode trust in democratic institutions, their influence on the media agenda has gradually diminished following the elections to the Coordination Council. Consequently, their audience has narrowed, and trust in political organizations has waned.

The latest crisis within the democratic movement has drawn the attention of independent media to civil and business organizations. Despite repression, activists are sustaining long-term projects in exile, such as the Association of Belarusian Business Abroad (ABBA).

Thus, the disintegration of the unified agenda and coalition platforms of democratic forces could significantly weaken their overall potential and their influence on the Belarusian-European agenda.