New Challenges: Kanapatskaya and the Security Forces’ Special Operations

The democratic forces are intensifying their campaign to legalize Belarusians and protect volunteers in response to the deportation of a former fighter of the Kalinouski Regiment to Belarus. Hanna Kanapatskaya is strengthening her position in the democratic movement through her presidential campaign: the former parliamentarian is attracting a portion of democratic activists to her side.

Hanna Kanapatskaya has a controversial reputation among democratic activists.

The former parliamentarian is targeting democratic activists and enjoys a carte blanche from the regime to relaunch public activities. However, unlike ex-editor of NEXTA Raman Pratasevich and propagandist Yuri Vaskresenski, she maintains an image of an autonomous politician and opposition figure, keeping a distance from the ruling elite. As a result, some activists from disbanded democratic organizations are joining Kanapatskaya’s team. Former entrepreneurs’ leader Shumchanka has become the head of her campaign headquarters, while leftist public figure Vaznyak has joined her initiative group.

It is worth noting that criticism of the United Transitional Cabinet’s sanctions approach is growing, particularly from veteran opposition figure Zianon Pazniak. Pazniak calls for negotiations between European capitals and the Lukashenka regime, which would effectively lead to a revision of relations between democratic forces and the West. However, Pazniak remains outside the core processes: his influence within the democratic movement is limited, and his structure, “Free Belarus,” even declined participation in the Coordination Council elections.

Meanwhile, the ruling elite seeks to deepen divisions within the democratic forces. Propagandist Vaskresenski has demanded the lifting of Western sanctions in exchange for the release of political prisoner Maria Kalesnikava.

The democratic forces have suffered reputational losses due to the scandal surrounding the deportation of Vasyl Verameichyk, a former fighter of the Kalinouski Regiment and member of the Coordination Council, by Vietnam. Lithuania recognized the former volunteer as a “national security threat,” barring him from entering EU countries. As a result, Verameichyk was forced to seek asylum in potentially unsafe countries.

The democratic forces are striving to reshape public opinion about the Kalinouski Regiment, which has also faced reputational setbacks after several scandals. Regiment representatives are holding meetings in Lithuania and Poland to discuss pressing issues: Verameichyk’s arrest, internal reforms, and recruiting women. Simultaneously, the Coordination Council has called on Lithuania and Ukraine to exchange Verameichyk for Belarusian spies.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet is strengthening cooperation with the Czech Republic to support Belarusian fighters. Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine will now have access to treatment and rehabilitation in Czech medical facilities through the Ministry of Defense.

Thus, as Kanapatskaya’s political campaign progresses, it may contribute to undermining the unity of the democratic agenda.