“Hawks” of Democratic Forces: Blitzkrieg Narratives for Political Migrants

Among democratic forces, the popularity of tough measures and the forceful replacement of the Lukashenka regime persists. The rhetoric of “hawkish” politicians aligns with the sentiments of the active democratic movement, much of which is in exile – in Lithuania and Poland. This blitzkrieg narrative allows for mobilizing and recruiting supporters of democratic forces.

Representative of the United Transitional Cabinet of Defense and National Security, Valery Sahaschik, stated: Russia and Belarus are preparing plans for the use of tactical nuclear weapons and a “blitzkrieg on Vilnius.” Statements made by Sahaschik and his associate Pavel Latushka regarding the aggressive plans of Lukashenka and Putin towards Lithuania and Poland are aimed at the Belarusian diaspora – and this elevates attention to politicians of the hardline wing of democratic forces. Fanning threats by the “hawks” contributes to the consolidation of their supporters. At the same time, the Belarusian “trend” aligns with the general trend of increasing tension in the region. Thus, the motivation of activists is stimulated, along with recruitment into militarized and volunteer formations.

The audience of democratic forces narrows down to the most vehement opponents of the regime – the majority of whom are in exile. The largest diasporas of the recent wave of emigration (after 2020) have formed in Poland and Lithuania.

In turn, the independent media space is divided into resources that prefer one political figure or another and political organizations. Some independent media outlets distance themselves from “conspiratorial” statements and criticize the “hawks.” For example, “Nasha Niva” conducted investigations aiming to debunk myths and statements made by Sahaschik.

However, institutional projects of democratic forces are not popular. This is explained by the high polarization of society, predominance of radical rhetoric, and the popularity of “hawkish” politicians.

The Coordination Council begins preparations for the election of new members. However, this project of democratic forces remains on the periphery of attention of independent media and society.

Thus, in the event of the nomination of “hawkish” politicians, there is a greater chance of obtaining seats in the new composition of the Coordination Council due to the prevalence of ultimatum rhetoric in diasporas.